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AD Tarma vs Atletico Grau

Peru Peru

Liga 1 Estadio Unión Tarma, Tarma
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Guivin Tanta J.
25'
Sub
Rodriguez A. In: Benites Vargas L. E.
Out: Rodriguez A.
45'
Acevedo L.

AI Match Summary

The Liga 1 game between AD Tarma and Atletico Grau finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AD Tarma.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
AD Tarma
15%
Draws
57%
Atletico Grau
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Atletico Grau

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Atletico Grau come out ahead of AD Tarma on wins alone.
  • Model gives Atletico Grau a 57% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
AD Tarma Clean Sheet 12%
Atletico Grau Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AD Tarma Atletico Grau
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 8 11
Draws 7 6
Losses 14 13
Goals Scored 1.17 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Liga 1
AD Tarma vs Atletico Grau
1:0
Aug 31, 2025 Liga 1
Atletico Grau vs AD Tarma
2:0
Feb 15, 2025 Liga 1
AD Tarma vs Atletico Grau
4:3
Aug 4, 2024 Liga 1
AD Tarma vs Atletico Grau
1:2
Feb 25, 2024 Liga 1
Atletico Grau vs AD Tarma
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AD Tarma Compare

Top Goalscorer Guivin Tanta J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Atletico Grau Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AD Tarma 19 / 100
Atletico Grau 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AD Tarma Atletico Grau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Atletico Grau Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: AD Tarma scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Atletico Grau let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Away concern: Atletico Grau has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

AD Tarma VS Atletico Grau
0.75 Goals Scored 1.5
2 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

AD Tarma

(Home)
27 Sept
AD Tarma
0 : 1
Sporting Cristal
23 Sept
AD Tarma
2 : 1
Cienciano
19 Sept
A. Lima
2 : 0
AD Tarma
06 Sept
FBC Melgar
3 : 0
AD Tarma
30 Aug
AD Tarma
1 : 3
Sport Huancayo
Page 1 of 6

Atletico Grau

(Away)
19 Sept
Sporting Cristal
3 : 1
Atletico Grau
13 Sept
Atletico Grau
3 : 1
Alianza Atl.
06 Sept
Deportivo Garcilaso
4 : 2
Atletico Grau
01 Sept
Atletico Grau
1 : 0
FBC Melgar
26 Aug
Atletico Grau
2 : 3
Sport Boys
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 A. Lima 17 12 4 1 30:8 40
2 Los Chankas 17 10 4 3 25:21 34
3 Cienciano 17 10 3 4 34:22 33
4 Universitario de Deportes 17 8 5 4 24:15 29
5 FBC Melgar 17 8 4 5 29:20 28
6 Cusco 17 8 3 6 21:24 27
7 Deportivo Garcilaso 17 7 5 5 21:18 26
8 Alianza Atl. 17 5 6 6 20:18 21
9 Comerciantes Unidos 17 5 6 6 18:20 21
10 AD Tarma 17 5 5 7 22:21 20
11 Sport Boys 17 5 5 7 15:19 20
12 Sporting Cristal 17 5 4 8 28:30 19
13 Cajamarca 17 4 6 7 21:26 18
14 Moquegua 17 5 3 9 17:24 18
15 FC Cajamarca 17 4 5 8 23:28 17
16 Atletico Grau 17 4 4 9 12:18 16
17 Sport Huancayo 17 4 4 9 21:31 16
18 Juan Pablo II 17 4 4 9 22:40 16
Promotion - Liga 1 (Play Offs)