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Adelaide Utd vs Auckland FC

Australia Australia

A-League Coopers Stadium
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AI Match Summary

Adelaide Utd play Auckland FC in the A-League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Adelaide Utd averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Auckland FC averaged 1.63 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. In past meetings, Adelaide Utd won 0, Auckland FC won 2, and they drew 3. Their last match on May 15, 2026 ended 0:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for Adelaide Utd and 1.56 for Auckland FC. This points to a Auckland FC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Adelaide Utd
35%
Draws
36%
Auckland FC
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Auckland FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Adelaide Utd picked up more points recently compared to Auckland FC.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 1.56 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 63%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 89%
Over 2.5 Goals 63%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74%
Adelaide Utd Clean Sheet 15%
Auckland FC Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 80%
Second Half Goal 85%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Adelaide Utd Auckland FC
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 14
Draws 8 10
Losses 10 6
Goals Scored 1.67 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 15, 2026 A-League
Adelaide Utd vs Auckland FC
0:3
May 9, 2026 A-League
Auckland FC vs Adelaide Utd
1:1
Apr 3, 2026 A-League
Adelaide Utd vs Auckland FC
1:1
Nov 1, 2025 A-League
Auckland FC vs Adelaide Utd
2:1
Mar 1, 2025 A-League
Auckland FC vs Adelaide Utd
4:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Adelaide Utd Compare

Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Auckland FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Girdwood-Reich J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rogerson L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Adelaide Utd 29 / 100
Auckland FC 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Adelaide Utd Auckland FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Auckland FC or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +38%
4.76
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.3%
1.75
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Adelaide Utd attacking → ← attacking Auckland FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Adelaide Utd scored in 90% of their last 30 games.

Auckland FC let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Adelaide Utd went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Auckland FC lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

44 Points in last 5 52
1.75 Goals expected (xG) 2.00
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13