Sport Picks
Adelaide Utd vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction & H2H Stats
Australia
A-League 2025/2026 Coopers Stadium, Adelaide 
Match Events
35'
35'
James M.
Assist: Piper C.
55'
55'
Jovanovic L.
Assist: Yull J.
71'
71'
Sub
Sheridan M. In: Payne T.
Out: Sheridan M.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this A-League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
34%
15%
51%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Wellington Phoenix
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
34%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Adelaide Utd lately — more wins on the board than Wellington Phoenix.
- Model gives Adelaide Utd a 34% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 90%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 22.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Adelaide Utd Clean Sheet 20%
Wellington Phoenix Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Adelaide Utd | Wellington Phoenix |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 30 |
| Wins | 14 | 12 |
| Draws | 8 | 6 |
| Losses | 9 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.71 | 1.33 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.32 | 1.77 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.61 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 6, 2026 A-League
Adelaide Utd vs Wellington Phoenix
1:1
Jan 11, 2026 A-League
Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide Utd
2:2
Nov 29, 2025 A-League
Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide Utd
2:1
Apr 18, 2025 A-League
Adelaide Utd vs Wellington Phoenix
3:2
Jan 11, 2025 A-League
Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide Utd
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Adelaide Utd Compare
Top Goalscorer Jovanovic L.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.24
Avg xA / game 0.81
Wellington Phoenix Compare
Top Goalscorer James M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Adelaide Utd 49 / 100
Wellington Phoenix 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Adelaide Utd Wellington Phoenix
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Adelaide Utd Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Adelaide Utd found the back of the net in 84% of recent matches (31 games).
Defensive concern: Wellington Phoenix conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.
Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.
Solid form: Adelaide Utd remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Adelaide Utd VS Wellington Phoenix
1.63 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.6
100% Over 1.5 80%
50% Over 2.5 60%
25% Over 3.5 20%
Recent Form & Match History
Adelaide Utd
(Home) 03 Oct
Perth Glory
1 : 3 Adelaide Utd
27 Sept
Perth Glory
2 : 0 Adelaide Utd
17 Sept
Adelaide Utd
3 : 0 Tai Po
11 Aug
Adelaide Utd
0 : 2 Cong An Ha Noi
30 Jul
South Melbourne
2 : 1 Adelaide Utd
Page 1 of 7
17 Sept
Adelaide Utd
3 : 0 Tai Po
11 Aug
Adelaide Utd
0 : 2 Cong An Ha Noi
15 May
Adelaide Utd
0 : 3 Auckland FC
19 Apr
Adelaide Utd
3 : 1 Macarthur FC
03 Apr
Adelaide Utd
1 : 1 Auckland FC
Page 1 of 3
Wellington Phoenix
(Away) 24 Apr
Macarthur FC
4 : 0 Wellington Phoenix
18 Apr
Wellington Phoenix
2 : 1 Western Sydney Wanderers
12 Apr
Melbourne City
2 : 0 Wellington Phoenix
05 Apr
Melbourne Victory
0 : 1 Wellington Phoenix
21 Mar
Brisbane Roar
1 : 2 Wellington Phoenix
Page 1 of 6
24 Apr
Macarthur FC
4 : 0 Wellington Phoenix
12 Apr
Melbourne City
2 : 0 Wellington Phoenix
05 Apr
Melbourne Victory
0 : 1 Wellington Phoenix
21 Mar
Brisbane Roar
1 : 2 Wellington Phoenix
06 Mar
Adelaide Utd
1 : 1 Wellington Phoenix
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Jets | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 55:39 | 48 |
| 2 | Adelaide Utd | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 46:36 | 43 |
| 3 | Auckland FC | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 42:29 | 42 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 44:33 | 40 |
| 5 | Sydney FC | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 33:25 | 39 |
| 6 | Melbourne City | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 33:33 | 38 |
| 7 | Macarthur FC | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 37:44 | 34 |
| 8 | Wellington Phoenix | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 36:48 | 33 |
| 9 | Central Coast | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 35:42 | 32 |
| 10 | Perth Glory | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 32:39 | 31 |
| 11 | Brisbane Roar | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 27:36 | 26 |
| 12 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 26 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 27:43 | 21 |
Promotion - A-League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - A-League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
