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AE Iraklis Larissa vs Ethnikos Neou - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Greece Greece

Gamma Ethniki - Group 4
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

AE Iraklis Larissa host Ethnikos Neou in the Gamma Ethniki - Group 4. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: AE Iraklis Larissa at 0.71 goals for, 1.42 against; Ethnikos Neou at 2.15 for, 1.24 against. Head-to-head, AE Iraklis Larissa have won 1 to Ethnikos Neou's 1, with 2 draws. They last met on Feb 20, 2022, ending 1:0. Model xG sits at 0.67 vs 1.98, favoring Ethnikos Neou. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
AE Iraklis Larissa
15%
Draws
76%
Ethnikos Neou
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ethnikos Neou

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / Very High Confidence
  • Ethnikos Neou carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Ethnikos Neou are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 48%
Over 4.5 Goals 22%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
AE Iraklis Larissa Clean Sheet 10%
Ethnikos Neou Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AE Iraklis Larissa Ethnikos Neou
Matches Played 31 34
Wins 8 22
Draws 7 5
Losses 16 7
Goals Scored 0.71 2.15
Goals Conceded 1.42 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 0.67 1.98
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 20, 2022 Gamma Ethniki - Group 3
AE Iraklis Larissa vs Ethnikos Neou
1:0
Nov 21, 2021 Gamma Ethniki - Group 3
Ethnikos Neou vs AE Iraklis Larissa
0:0
Apr 11, 2021 Gamma Ethniki - Group 3
Ethnikos Neou vs AE Iraklis Larissa
2:0
Feb 7, 2021 Gamma Ethniki - Group 3
AE Iraklis Larissa vs Ethnikos Neou
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AE Iraklis Larissa 18 / 100
Ethnikos Neou 58 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AE Iraklis Larissa Ethnikos Neou

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ethnikos Neou Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ethnikos Neou let in goals in 71% of their last 34 matches.

AE Iraklis Larissa's goal record stands at 45% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

H2H data points to 0.75 goals as a typical output.

AE Iraklis Larissa went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

AE Iraklis Larissa VS Ethnikos Neou
0.33 Goals Scored 2.63
1.33 Goals Conceded 1
33% Over 1.5 75%
33% Over 2.5 63%
33% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

AE Iraklis Larissa

(Home)
04 Oct
AE Iraklis Larissa
0 : 1
AO Trikala
26 Sept
Pierikos
3 : 1
AE Iraklis Larissa
17 Jun
Veria
3 : 0
AE Iraklis Larissa
10 Jun
AE Iraklis Larissa
0 : 0
Makedonikos Neapolis
03 Jun
Panathinaikos B
3 : 1
AE Iraklis Larissa
Page 1 of 7

Ethnikos Neou

(Away)
04 Oct
Ethnikos Neou
1 : 0
Feraios
26 Sept
Elassona
3 : 0
Ethnikos Neou
17 May
Elassona
2 : 3
Ethnikos Neou
14 May
Ethnikos Neou
3 : 2
Panthrakikos
10 May
Apollon Kalamaria
3 : 2
Ethnikos Neou
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 AO Trikala 2 2 0 0 2:0 6
2 Anthoupoli 2 1 1 0 4:1 4
3 Ermis Exochis 2 1 1 0 4:2 4
4 Elassona 2 1 0 1 4:3 3
5 Karitsa 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
6 Sarakinos Volos 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
7 Pierikos 2 1 0 1 3:2 3
8 Ethnikos Neou 2 1 0 1 1:3 3
9 Feraios 2 0 0 2 0:2 0
10 Digenis Neochori 1 0 0 1 0:3 0
11 AE Iraklis Larissa 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
Promotion - Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 (Winners stage)
Relegation - Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 (Losers stage)