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AEK Larnaca vs Akritas Chloraka - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Cyprus Cyprus

Cyprus Cup
Wed, Oct 21, 2026
VS
04:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 5-0. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. Form suggests where the edge lies here. Recent numbers: AEK Larnaca at 1.67 goals for, 1.09 against; Akritas Chloraka at 1.07 for, 1.82 against. Head-to-head, AEK Larnaca have won 3 to Akritas Chloraka's 0, with 2 draws. They last met on Mar 6, 2026, ending 3:0. The numbers (1.77 xG vs 1.17) point toward AEK Larnaca. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
AEK Larnaca
15%
Draws
21%
Akritas Chloraka
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: AEK Larnaca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Akritas Chloraka haven't matched AEK Larnaca's recent run of results.
  • AEK Larnaca are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • AEK Larnaca have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor AEK Larnaca, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 40%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
AEK Larnaca Clean Sheet 20%
Akritas Chloraka Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AEK Larnaca Akritas Chloraka
Matches Played 33 28
Wins 17 9
Draws 7 3
Losses 9 16
Goals Scored 1.67 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.09 1.82
Expected Goals (xG) 1.77 1.17
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 6, 2026 Cyprus League
AEK Larnaca vs Akritas Chloraka
3:0
Dec 1, 2025 Cyprus League
Akritas Chloraka vs AEK Larnaca
1:1
Oct 1, 2024 Cyprus Cup
AEK Larnaca vs Akritas Chloraka
5:0
Feb 10, 2023 Cyprus League
AEK Larnaca vs Akritas Chloraka
1:1
Nov 7, 2022 Cyprus League
Akritas Chloraka vs AEK Larnaca
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AEK Larnaca 85 / 100
Akritas Chloraka 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AEK Larnaca Akritas Chloraka

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AEK Larnaca Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Akritas Chloraka conceded in 82% of 28 recent games.

Attacking prowess: AEK Larnaca scored in 79% of their last 33 outings.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Recent resilience: AEK Larnaca stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

AEK Larnaca VS Akritas Chloraka
2.38 Goals Scored 0.83
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.17
75% Over 1.5 67%
75% Over 2.5 33%
63% Over 3.5 17%

Recent Form & Match History

AEK Larnaca

(Home)
12 Oct
AEK Larnaca
1 : 0
Omonia Aradippou
03 Oct
AEK Larnaca
3 : 0
Apollon Limassol
27 Sept
AEK Larnaca
2 : 1
Nea Salamis
18 Sept
Omonia 29th May
1 : 2
AEK Larnaca
13 Sept
AEK Larnaca
0 : 1
Pafos
Page 1 of 7

Akritas Chloraka

(Away)
10 Oct
PAEEK
2 : 1
Akritas Chloraka
19 Sept
Akritas Chloraka
1 : 1
ASIL Lysi
11 Sept
Ermis
2 : 0
Akritas Chloraka
14 Aug
Paralimni
2 : 3
Akritas Chloraka
15 May
Akritas Chloraka
1 : 2
AEL Limassol
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
AEK Larnaca -
Akritas Chloraka -
Omonia 29th May -
Polemidion -
Doxa -
Ol. Nicosia -
Kitiou -
Krasava -
Aris Limassol -
Achnas -
Omonia Aradippou -
Digenis Akritas -
AEL Limassol -
Iraklis Yerolakkou -
Nea Salamis -
Apea Akrotiriou -
Karmiotissa -
Ermis -
APOEL -
Halkanoras -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
1/8-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Quarter-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -