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AEK Larnaca vs Aris Limassol

Cyprus Cyprus

Cyprus League 2025/2026 AEK Arena, Larnaca
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Match Events

23'
36' Event
Milicevic H.
38'
Paje G.

AI Match Summary

The Cyprus League 2025/2026 game between AEK Larnaca and Aris Limassol finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AEK Larnaca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
AEK Larnaca
30%
Draws
23%
Aris Limassol
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: AEK Larnaca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Aris Limassol haven't matched AEK Larnaca's recent run of results.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on AEK Larnaca taking it.
  • Regular Cyprus League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
AEK Larnaca Clean Sheet 15%
Aris Limassol Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AEK Larnaca Aris Limassol
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 6
Draws 8 9
Losses 9 14
Goals Scored 1.55 1.41
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 22, 2026 Cyprus League
Aris Limassol vs AEK Larnaca
3:4
Apr 25, 2026 Cyprus League
AEK Larnaca vs Aris Limassol
2:0
Jan 10, 2026 Cyprus League
Aris Limassol vs AEK Larnaca
1:0
Sep 22, 2025 Cyprus League
AEK Larnaca vs Aris Limassol
3:2
Apr 27, 2025 Cyprus League
Aris Limassol vs AEK Larnaca
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AEK Larnaca Compare

Top Goalscorer Milicevic H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Garcia A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Aris Limassol Compare

Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AEK Larnaca 84 / 100
Aris Limassol 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AEK Larnaca Aris Limassol

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AEK Larnaca Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

AEK Larnaca's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Aris Limassol conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.

Recent resilience: AEK Larnaca stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

AEK Larnaca VS Aris Limassol
2.38 Goals Scored 1.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

AEK Larnaca

(Home)
18 Sept
Omonia 29th May
1 : 2
AEK Larnaca
13 Sept
AEK Larnaca
0 : 1
Pafos
06 Sept
Nea Salamis
1 : 4
AEK Larnaca
29 Aug
AEK Larnaca
3 : 1
APOEL
21 Aug
AEK Larnaca
5 : 2
Omonia 29th May
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Aris Limassol

(Away)
20 Sept
Aris Limassol
0 : 0
Karmiotissa
14 Sept
Krasava
0 : 1
Aris Limassol
07 Sept
Aris Limassol
1 : 4
Omonia
29 Aug
Aris Limassol
2 : 2
Apollon Limassol
22 Aug
AEL Limassol
2 : 2
Aris Limassol
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Omonia 36 27 6 3 88:24 87
2 AEK Larnaca 36 20 9 7 62:33 69
3 Apollon Limassol 36 20 7 9 52:41 67
4 Pafos 36 18 8 10 66:38 62
5 APOEL 36 15 7 14 53:45 52
6 Aris Limassol 36 14 9 13 61:45 51
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)