Sport Picks

Stadium Background

AEK Larnaca vs Krasava

Cyprus Cyprus

Cyprus League 2025/2026 AEK Arena, Larnaca
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Milicevic H.
(Penalty)
36'
Milicevic H.
37'
Thiago

AI Match Summary

AEK Larnaca in this Cyprus League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored AEK Larnaca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
AEK Larnaca
30%
Draws
16%
Krasava
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: AEK Larnaca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to AEK Larnaca lately — more wins on the board than Krasava.
  • Win probability leans AEK Larnaca's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
AEK Larnaca Clean Sheet 68%
Krasava Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AEK Larnaca Krasava
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 12 9
Draws 8 7
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1.53 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.55
Expected Goals (xG) 2.02 1.08
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 18, 2026 Cyprus League
AEK Larnaca vs Krasava
2:1
Sep 27, 2025 Cyprus League
Krasava vs AEK Larnaca
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AEK Larnaca Compare

Top Goalscorer Cabrera E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.55
Avg xA / game 1.01

Krasava Compare

Top Goalscorer Bah A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.98
Avg xA / game 0.6

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AEK Larnaca 95 / 100
Krasava 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AEK Larnaca Krasava

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AEK Larnaca Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.50 goals as a typical output.

AEK Larnaca found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Krasava's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 29 matches.

Recent resilience: AEK Larnaca stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

AEK Larnaca VS Krasava
1.38 Goals Scored 0.67
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.67
63% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

AEK Larnaca

(Home)
21 Aug
AEK Larnaca
5 : 2
Omonia 29th May
12 Aug
Asteras Tripolis
3 : 1
AEK Larnaca
08 Aug
AEK Larnaca
0 : 1
Omonia Aradippou
07 Aug
AEK Larnaca
3 : 0
Karmiotissa
30 Jul
Beitar Jerusalem
3 : 3
AEK Larnaca
Page 1 of 6

Krasava

(Away)
22 Aug
Omonia Aradippou
0 : 0
Krasava
19 Aug
Krasava
0 : 4
AEL Limassol
14 Aug
Nea Salamis
7 : 2
Krasava
17 May
Krasava
0 : 0
Paralimni
08 May
Anorthosis
5 : 2
Krasava
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Omonia 26 19 4 3 63:17 61
2 AEK Larnaca 26 16 5 5 49:22 53
3 Apollon Limassol 26 16 5 5 36:22 53
4 Pafos 26 16 3 7 53:24 51
5 APOEL 26 13 6 7 45:27 45
6 Aris Limassol 26 12 7 7 48:26 43
7 Omonia Aradippou 26 10 4 12 23:31 34
8 AEL Limassol 26 10 3 13 31:38 33
9 Anorthosis 26 7 11 8 23:33 32
10 Krasava 26 8 4 14 26:36 28
11 Ol. Nicosia 26 6 10 10 22:37 28
12 Akritas Chloraka 26 7 5 14 23:48 26
13 Achnas 26 7 2 17 25:44 23
14 Paralimni 26 0 1 25 5:67 1
Promotion - Cyprus League 2025/2026 (Championship Group)
Relegation - Cyprus League 2025/2026 (Relegation Group)