Sport Picks

Stadium Background

AEK vs Celje

Europe Europe

Conference League 2025/2026 Allwyn Arena, Athens
0 - 2
FT
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Iosifov N.
Assist: Seslar S.
23'
Calusic I.
37'
Gacinovic M.

AI Match Summary

Celje in this Conference League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 0-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
AEK
39%
Draws
31%
Celje
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Celje haven't matched AEK's recent run of results.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • AEK have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Celje, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Celje here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
AEK Clean Sheet 68%
Celje Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AEK Celje
Matches Played 29 25
Wins 16 15
Draws 9 4
Losses 4 6
Goals Scored 1.29 1.75
Goals Conceded 1 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 19, 2026 Conference League
AEK vs Celje
0:2
Mar 12, 2026 Conference League
Celje vs AEK
0:4
Oct 2, 2025 Conference League
Celje vs AEK
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AEK Compare

Avg xG / game 0.99
Avg xA / game 0.65

Celje Compare

Top Goalscorer Iosifov N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pozeg R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AEK 41 / 100
Celje 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AEK Celje

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AEK Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.33 goals.

Attacking prowess: AEK scored in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: Celje conceded in 68% of 25 recent games.

Recent resilience: AEK stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

AEK VS Celje
1.29 Goals Scored 1.75
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
71% Over 1.5 75%
57% Over 2.5 50%
14% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

AEK

(Home)
29 Jul
AEK
1 : 2
Samsunspor
26 Jul
Zwolle
2 : 3
AEK
18 Jul
Groningen
1 : 2
AEK
15 Jul
Vitesse
0 : 0
AEK
12 Jul
De Graafschap
1 : 2
AEK
Page 1 of 6

Celje

(Away)
28 Jul
Celje
3 : 2
KF Egnatia
22 Jul
KF Egnatia
3 : 3
Celje
17 Jul
Celje
2 : 2
Mura
11 Jul
Celje
1 : 1
Istra 1961
08 Jul
Celje
4 : 3
MTK Budapest
Page 1 of 5

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
KuPS0
Lech Poznan3
Shakhtar-
TBD-
Noah1
AZ Alkmaar4
Sparta Prague-
TBD-
Zrinjski1
Crystal Palace3
AEK Larnaca-
TBD-
Jagiellonia4
Fiorentina5
Rakow Czestochowa-
TBD-
Shkendija Tetovo0
Samsunspor5
Rayo Vallecano-
TBD-
Drita4
Celje6
AEK-
TBD-
Sigma Olomouc3
Lausanne2
Mainz-
TBD-
Omonia1
Rijeka4
Strasbourg-
TBD-
1/8-finals
Lech Poznan3
Shakhtar4
AZ Alkmaar6
Sparta Prague1
Crystal Palace2
AEK Larnaca1
Fiorentina4
Rakow Czestochowa2
Samsunspor2
Rayo Vallecano3
Celje2
AEK4
Sigma Olomouc0
Mainz2
Rijeka2
Strasbourg3
Quarter-finals
Shakhtar5
AZ Alkmaar2
Crystal Palace4
Fiorentina2
Rayo Vallecano4
AEK3
Mainz2
Strasbourg4
Semi-finals
Shakhtar2
Crystal Palace5
Rayo Vallecano2
Strasbourg0
Final
Crystal Palace1
Rayo Vallecano0