Sport Picks

Stadium Background

AEK vs PAOK

Greece Greece

Super League 2025/2026 Allwyn Arena, Athens
AEK Logo

AEK

3 - 0
FT
PAOK Logo

PAOK

Our Tip

Match Events

4'
Sanchez J.
30'
Gacinovic M.
36' Event
Kedziora T.
Own Goal
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Super League 2025/2026 game between AEK and PAOK finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AEK.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
AEK
20%
Draws
35%
PAOK
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: AEK

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • AEK carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 45% — that's where the model lands on AEK taking it.
  • Regular Super League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
AEK Clean Sheet 68%
PAOK Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AEK PAOK
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 18 14
Draws 8 7
Losses 4 8
Goals Scored 2.17 1.9
Goals Conceded 0.8 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 13, 2026 Super League
PAOK vs AEK
1:1
Apr 19, 2026 Super League
AEK vs PAOK
3:0
Feb 15, 2026 Super League
PAOK vs AEK
0:0
Oct 19, 2025 Super League
AEK vs PAOK
0:2
May 11, 2025 Super League
PAOK vs AEK
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AEK Compare

Top Goalscorer Koita A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pineda O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

PAOK Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AEK 95 / 100
PAOK 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AEK PAOK

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AEK Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AEK found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (30 games).

Recent resilience: AEK stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Defensive concern: PAOK conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

AEK VS PAOK
2.25 Goals Scored 1.75
0.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

AEK

(Home)
20 Sept
Volos
1 : 2
AEK
17 Sept
AEK
8 : 1
Panserraikos
13 Sept
Asteras Tripolis
1 : 1
AEK
08 Sept
AEK
1 : 0
LASK Linz
05 Sept
AEK
5 : 0
Aris
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PAOK

(Away)
20 Sept
Panetolikos
1 : 3
PAOK
16 Sept
Atromitos
0 : 1
PAOK
13 Sept
PAOK
2 : 0
Aris
06 Sept
Panathinaikos
3 : 1
PAOK
02 Sept
PAOK
0 : 0
OFI Crete
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 AEK 32 21 9 2 57:20 72
2 Olympiacos Piraeus 32 19 9 4 51:17 66
3 PAOK 32 18 10 4 59:25 64
4 Panathinaikos 32 14 10 8 47:33 52
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)