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AEL Larissa vs Aiolikos FC

Greece Greece

Super League 2 2023/2024 AEL FC Arena
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

AEL Larissa play Aiolikos FC in the Super League 2 2023/2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, AEL Larissa averaged 0.9 goals scored and 1.55 conceded. Aiolikos FC averaged 0.79 goals scored and 1.64 conceded. In past meetings, AEL Larissa won 1, Aiolikos FC won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jan 13, 2024 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.04 for AEL Larissa and 1.13 for Aiolikos FC. This points to a AEL Larissa double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
AEL Larissa
31%
Draws
25%
Aiolikos FC
Draw rate projection: 31% Favored: AEL Larissa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / High Confidence
  • AEL Larissa picked up more points recently compared to Aiolikos FC.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.04 vs 1.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 77%
Over 2.5 Goals 43%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 54%
AEL Larissa Clean Sheet 21%
Aiolikos FC Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 69%
Second Half Goal 73%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AEL Larissa Aiolikos FC
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 5 4
Draws 11 7
Losses 15 17
Goals Scored 0.9 0.79
Goals Conceded 1.55 1.64

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 13, 2024 Super League 2
AEL Larissa vs Aiolikos FC
2:0
Oct 15, 2023 Super League 2
Aiolikos FC vs AEL Larissa
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AEL Larissa Compare

Top Goalscorer Mavrias D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Iliadis T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Aiolikos FC Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AEL Larissa 44 / 100
Aiolikos FC 25 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AEL Larissa Aiolikos FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: AEL Larissa or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +22.3%
2.78
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +16.1%
2.70
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

AEL Larissa attacking → ← attacking Aiolikos FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AEL Larissa scored in 71% of their last 31 games.

Aiolikos FC let in goals in 86% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

AEL Larissa went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Aiolikos FC lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

26 Points in last 5 19
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Levadiakos22174136:955
2AEL Larissa22147132:1249
3Niki Volos221021033:2432
4AEK B2288623:1732
5Makedonikos Neapolis22710524:2331
6PAOK B22931031:2730
7Karditsa2285922:2429
8Iraklis FC2278725:2029
9Kozani FC22661010:1724
10Kampaniakos22721318:3223
11Aiolikos FC22471120:3613
12Apollon Kalamaria22321712:4511
13Almopos00000:00
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Athens Kallithea22145331:1447
2PAE Chania (Kissamikos)22135439:1444
3Ionikos22106634:2336
4Kalamata22106627:1536
5Ilioupoli22112920:2335
6Diagoras FC22831121:3027
7PAE Egaleo22741115:2525
8Olympiacos Piraeus B2289531:2123
9Giouchtas22571020:2822
10Panathinaikos B22631319:3621
11Panachaiki2249924:3221
12Tilikratis Lefkada22531417:3718