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AEL Limassol vs Pafos

Cyprus Cyprus

Cyprus Cup Alphamega Stadium
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Match Events

11' Event
Jaja
(Penalty)
34'
Maseko T.
38' Event
Jaja

AI Match Summary

Pafos in this Cyprus Cup matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Pafos.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
AEL Limassol
39%
Draws
30%
Pafos
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Pafos have won more games recently than AEL Limassol.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Knockout football tends to sharpen focus — no second leg to fall back on.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Pafos here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 91.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 35.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
AEL Limassol Clean Sheet 13%
Pafos Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AEL Limassol Pafos
Matches Played 30 38
Wins 13 19
Draws 4 8
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 1.17 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.67 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.67 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 22, 2026 Cyprus Cup
Pafos vs AEL Limassol
3:1
Apr 8, 2026 Cyprus Cup
AEL Limassol vs Pafos
1:2
Feb 15, 2026 Cyprus League
AEL Limassol vs Pafos
0:1
Nov 2, 2025 Cyprus League
Pafos vs AEL Limassol
1:0
Jan 6, 2025 Cyprus League
Pafos vs AEL Limassol
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AEL Limassol Compare

Top Goalscorer Sawo Z.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Pafos Compare

Top Goalscorer Jaja
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AEL Limassol 31 / 100
Pafos 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AEL Limassol Pafos

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAF Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AEL Limassol's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Pafos's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 38 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

AEL Limassol has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

AEL Limassol VS Pafos
1.17 Goals Scored 1.63
1.67 Goals Conceded 1.5
83% Over 1.5 100%
67% Over 2.5 50%
33% Over 3.5 38%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
M.E.A.P. Nisou1
Apollon Limassol5
Karmiotissa1
Anorthosis3
ASIL Lysi0
Ol. Nicosia2
Omonia Aradippou4
Ayia Napa0
APOEL5
AEZ Zakakiou0
Achyronas-Onisilos0
Apea Akrotiriou2
Kitiou0
Achnas4
Paralimni2
Halkanoras0
Omonia-
TBD-
TBD-
AEK Larnaca-
Aris Limassol2
Omonia 29th May1
Ethnikos Latsion1
AEL Limassol2
Krasava1
Nea Salamis2
TBD-
Digenis Akritas-
Pafos-
TBD-
Akritas Chloraka5
Doxa2
1/8-finals
Apollon Limassol2
Anorthosis0
Ol. Nicosia3
Omonia Aradippou4
APOEL1
Apea Akrotiriou0
Achnas1
Paralimni2
Omonia2
AEK Larnaca1
Aris Limassol0
AEL Limassol1
Nea Salamis2
Digenis Akritas3
Pafos2
Akritas Chloraka1
Quarter-finals
Apollon Limassol3
Omonia Aradippou2
APOEL3
Paralimni2
Omonia1
AEL Limassol2
Digenis Akritas0
Pafos3
Semi-finals
Apollon Limassol4
APOEL2
AEL Limassol2
Pafos5
Final
Apollon Limassol0
Pafos2