Sport Picks

Stadium Background

AEL Limassol vs Pafos

Cyprus Cyprus

Cyprus Cup Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi
AEL Limassol Logo

AEL Limassol

1 - 2
FT
Pafos Logo

Pafos

Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Jaja
(Penalty)
34'
Maseko T.
38' Event
Jaja
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-1. This leg finished 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
AEL Limassol
20%
Draws
40%
Pafos
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Pafos have won more games recently than AEL Limassol.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Pafos arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Pafos, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Pafos here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
AEL Limassol Clean Sheet 11%
Pafos Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AEL Limassol Pafos
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 13 14
Draws 5 10
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 1.4 1.72
Goals Conceded 1.4 1.06
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 18, 2026 Cyprus League
Pafos vs AEL Limassol
0:2
Apr 22, 2026 Cyprus Cup
Pafos vs AEL Limassol
3:1
Apr 8, 2026 Cyprus Cup
AEL Limassol vs Pafos
1:2
Feb 15, 2026 Cyprus League
AEL Limassol vs Pafos
0:1
Nov 2, 2025 Cyprus League
Pafos vs AEL Limassol
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AEL Limassol Compare

Top Goalscorer Sawo Z.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Pafos Compare

Top Goalscorer Jaja
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AEL Limassol 30 / 100
Pafos 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AEL Limassol Pafos

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: AEL Limassol scored in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Pafos's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 32 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

AEL Limassol went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

AEL Limassol VS Pafos
1.75 Goals Scored 2.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

AEL Limassol

(Home)
18 Sept
Pafos
0 : 2
AEL Limassol
11 Sept
AEL Limassol
2 : 1
Nea Salamis
06 Sept
APOEL
6 : 0
AEL Limassol
30 Aug
AEL Limassol
2 : 0
Anorthosis
22 Aug
AEL Limassol
2 : 2
Aris Limassol
Page 1 of 6

Pafos

(Away)
18 Sept
Pafos
0 : 2
AEL Limassol
13 Sept
AEK Larnaca
0 : 1
Pafos
07 Sept
Pafos
0 : 0
Ol. Nicosia
03 Sept
Omonia
0 : 1
Pafos
30 Aug
Karmiotissa
0 : 3
Pafos
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
M.E.A.P. Nisou 1
Apollon Limassol 5
Karmiotissa 1
Anorthosis 3
ASIL Lysi 0
Ol. Nicosia 2
Omonia Aradippou 4
Ayia Napa 0
APOEL 5
AEZ Zakakiou 0
Achyronas-Onisilos 0
Apea Akrotiriou 2
Kitiou 0
Achnas 4
Paralimni 2
Halkanoras 0
Omonia -
TBD -
TBD -
AEK Larnaca -
Aris Limassol 2
Omonia 29th May 1
Ethnikos Latsion 1
AEL Limassol 2
Krasava 1
Nea Salamis 2
TBD -
Digenis Akritas -
Pafos -
TBD -
Akritas Chloraka 5
Doxa 2
1/8-finals
Apollon Limassol 2
Anorthosis 0
Ol. Nicosia 3
Omonia Aradippou 4
APOEL 1
Apea Akrotiriou 0
Achnas 1
Paralimni 2
Omonia 2
AEK Larnaca 1
Aris Limassol 0
AEL Limassol 1
Nea Salamis 2
Digenis Akritas 3
Pafos 2
Akritas Chloraka 1
Quarter-finals
Apollon Limassol 3
Omonia Aradippou 2
APOEL 3
Paralimni 2
Omonia 1
AEL Limassol 2
Digenis Akritas 0
Pafos 3
Semi-finals
Apollon Limassol 4
APOEL 2
AEL Limassol 2
Pafos 5
Final
Apollon Limassol 0
Pafos 2