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AFC Emley vs Gainsborough - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

NPL Premier Division
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

AFC Emley host Gainsborough in the NPL Premier Division. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. AFC Emley have averaged 0.89 scored and 1.85 conceded recently, against Gainsborough's 1.45 scored and 1.41 conceded. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. Model xG sits at 1.13 vs 2.13, favoring Gainsborough. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
AFC Emley
15%
Draws
59%
Gainsborough
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Gainsborough

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • AFC Emley haven't matched Gainsborough's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Gainsborough a 59% chance of winning this.
  • Regular NPL Premier Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
AFC Emley Clean Sheet 10%
Gainsborough Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AFC Emley Gainsborough
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 6 10
Draws 8 7
Losses 13 12
Goals Scored 0.89 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.85 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AFC Emley 10 / 100
Gainsborough 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AFC Emley Gainsborough

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gainsborough Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gainsborough let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

AFC Emley's goal record stands at 52% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

Solid form: AFC Emley remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Away concern: Gainsborough has suffered 2 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

AFC Emley VS Gainsborough
0.75 Goals Scored 1.38
2.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
75% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

AFC Emley

(Home)
29 Sept
AFC Emley
1 : 3
Workington
26 Sept
Bootle
5 : 0
AFC Emley
19 Sept
AFC Emley
0 : 4
Spennymoor
12 Sept
Bury FC
4 : 0
AFC Emley
09 Sept
Bishop Auckland
0 : 2
AFC Emley
Page 1 of 6

Gainsborough

(Away)
26 Sept
Bury FC
4 : 3
Gainsborough
22 Sept
Gainsborough
3 : 0
Leamington
19 Sept
Leamington
1 : 1
Gainsborough
12 Sept
Gainsborough
0 : 2
Avro
05 Sept
Sherwood Colliery
2 : 4
Gainsborough
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cleethorpes 10 7 2 1 25:6 23
2 Avro 9 7 1 1 28:16 22
3 Redcar Athletic 10 6 4 0 19:7 22
4 Guiseley 10 6 1 3 22:11 19
5 Workington 10 6 1 3 20:16 19
6 Warrington Town 9 5 2 2 18:14 17
7 Bury FC 9 5 1 3 19:8 16
8 Curzon Ashton 9 5 1 3 18:10 16
9 Warrington Rylands 10 5 1 4 13:13 16
10 Alfreton 10 5 0 5 16:10 15
11 Gainsborough 9 4 1 4 14:12 13
12 Lancaster 10 4 1 5 11:18 13
13 Whitby 10 4 0 6 15:26 12
14 Ashton United 9 3 2 4 10:9 11
15 Hyde 10 3 2 5 11:19 11
16 AFC Emley 10 2 4 4 9:18 10
17 Leek Town 10 2 3 5 19:20 9
18 Bamber Bridge 10 2 3 5 14:27 9
19 Stockton 10 2 2 6 13:20 8
20 Ilkeston 10 2 1 7 6:22 7
21 Quorn 9 1 3 5 12:23 6
22 United of Manchester 9 1 2 6 12:19 5
Promotion - National League North 2027/2028 (Main)
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