Sport Picks
Match Events
6'
6'
Dwyer A.
42'
42'
Hunter A.
56'
56'
Cowgill J.
AI Match Summary
Ilkeston in this NPL Premier Division matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ilkeston.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
0%
15%
85%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ilkeston
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
85%
/ Very High Confidence
- Ilkeston have won more games recently than AFC Emley.
- Ilkeston are the model's pick here, at 60%.
- Regular NPL Premier Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
AFC Emley Clean Sheet 11%
Ilkeston Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | AFC Emley | Ilkeston |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 27 | 28 |
| Wins | 6 | 8 |
| Draws | 7 | 4 |
| Losses | 14 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 0.89 | 0.96 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.96 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 1.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 11, 2026 NPL Premier Division
AFC Emley vs Ilkeston
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
AFC Emley Compare
Top Goalscorer Cowgill J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66
Ilkeston Compare
Top Goalscorer Dwyer A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Hunter A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
AFC Emley 18 / 100
Ilkeston 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
AFC Emley Ilkeston
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Ilkeston Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Ilkeston conceded in 82% of 28 recent games.
Ilkeston lost 5 of their last 5 games.
Games between these two average 3.00 goals.
AFC Emley scored in 52% of their last 27 games.
Scoring Trends
AFC Emley VS Ilkeston
0.63 Goals Scored 0.5
3.13 Goals Conceded 2
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
75% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
AFC Emley
(Home) 03 Oct
Warrington Rylands
4 : 1 AFC Emley
29 Sept
AFC Emley
1 : 3 Workington
26 Sept
Bootle
5 : 0 AFC Emley
19 Sept
AFC Emley
0 : 4 Spennymoor
12 Sept
Bury FC
4 : 0 AFC Emley
Page 1 of 6
29 Sept
AFC Emley
1 : 3 Workington
19 Sept
AFC Emley
0 : 4 Spennymoor
06 Sept
AFC Emley
1 : 1 Bishop Auckland
31 Aug
AFC Emley
0 : 4 Guiseley
22 Aug
AFC Emley
1 : 1 Ashton United
Page 1 of 3
Ilkeston
(Away) 06 Oct
Ilkeston
0 : 2 Guiseley
03 Oct
Lancaster
2 : 1 Ilkeston
29 Sept
Ilkeston
0 : 1 Warrington Rylands
26 Sept
Ilkeston
1 : 3 Anstey Nomads
12 Sept
Workington
3 : 1 Ilkeston
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Lancaster
2 : 1 Ilkeston
12 Sept
Workington
3 : 1 Ilkeston
05 Sept
Leamington
3 : 1 Ilkeston
29 Aug
Bury FC
7 : 0 Ilkeston
25 Aug
Ashton United
1 : 1 Ilkeston
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleethorpes | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 27:7 | 27 |
| 2 | Avro | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 33:19 | 25 |
| 3 | Redcar Athletic | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 23:11 | 25 |
| 4 | Guiseley | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 24:11 | 22 |
| 5 | Workington | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 23:19 | 21 |
| 6 | Warrington Rylands | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 20:17 | 20 |
| 7 | Curzon Ashton | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 21:11 | 19 |
| 8 | Alfreton | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 18:13 | 18 |
| 9 | Warrington Town | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 20:16 | 18 |
| 10 | Bury FC | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19:9 | 16 |
| 11 | Gainsborough | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20:14 | 16 |
| 12 | Lancaster | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 16:24 | 16 |
| 13 | Hyde | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13:21 | 14 |
| 14 | Ashton United | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12:11 | 12 |
| 15 | Whitby | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 17:32 | 12 |
| 16 | Stockton | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15:22 | 11 |
| 17 | Leek Town | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 22:23 | 10 |
| 18 | Quorn | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 18:27 | 10 |
| 19 | AFC Emley | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10:22 | 10 |
| 20 | Bamber Bridge | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 16:31 | 9 |
| 21 | Ilkeston | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 7:26 | 7 |
| 22 | United of Manchester | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 12:20 | 5 |
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