Sport Picks

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AFC Emley vs Ilkeston

England England

NPL Premier Division
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Dwyer A.
42' Event
Hunter A.
56' Event
Cowgill J.

AI Match Summary

Ilkeston in this NPL Premier Division matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ilkeston.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
AFC Emley
20%
Draws
56%
Ilkeston
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ilkeston

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Ilkeston have won more games recently than AFC Emley.
  • Ilkeston are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Regular NPL Premier Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 59%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
AFC Emley Clean Sheet 24%
Ilkeston Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AFC Emley Ilkeston
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 9 11
Draws 5 7
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1.26 1.29
Goals Conceded 1.74 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 0.85 0.92
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 11, 2026 NPL Premier Division
AFC Emley vs Ilkeston
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AFC Emley Compare

Top Goalscorer Cowgill J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.65
Avg xA / game 0.42

Ilkeston Compare

Top Goalscorer Dwyer A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hunter A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.84
Avg xA / game 0.51

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AFC Emley 25 / 100
Ilkeston 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AFC Emley Ilkeston

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ilkeston Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Ilkeston conceded in 68% of 28 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

AFC Emley went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

AFC Emley scored in 59% of their last 27 games.

Scoring Trends

AFC Emley VS Ilkeston
0.57 Goals Scored 1.13
0.71 Goals Conceded 1.13
43% Over 1.5 75%
29% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

AFC Emley

(Home)
14 Aug
AFC Emley
2 : 1
Curzon Ashton
11 Aug
AFC Emley
1 : 2
Ilkeston
08 Aug
Hyde
0 : 0
AFC Emley
25 Jul
Mossley AFC
1 : 0
AFC Emley
14 Jul
AFC Emley
1 : 1
Rotherham
Page 1 of 6

Ilkeston

(Away)
11 Aug
AFC Emley
1 : 2
Ilkeston
08 Aug
Ilkeston
1 : 0
Stockton
28 Jul
Ilkeston
4 : 1
Basford Utd.
11 Jul
Worksop
3 : 1
Ilkeston
25 Apr
Ilkeston
3 : 2
United of Manchester
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cleethorpes 4 3 1 0 10:2 10
2 Warrington Town 4 3 1 0 8:3 10
3 Gainsborough 4 3 0 1 10:3 9
4 Avro 4 3 0 1 12:6 9
5 Ashton United 4 3 0 1 7:2 9
6 Redcar Athletic 4 2 2 0 5:2 8
7 Guiseley 4 2 1 1 8:6 7
8 Bury FC 4 2 1 1 6:5 7
9 AFC Emley 4 2 1 1 5:4 7
10 Hyde 4 2 1 1 3:4 7
11 Alfreton 4 2 0 2 6:4 6
12 Warrington Rylands 4 2 0 2 4:2 6
13 Whitby 4 2 0 2 4:5 6
14 Ilkeston 4 2 0 2 4:5 6
15 Curzon Ashton 4 1 1 2 6:7 4
16 Bamber Bridge 4 1 1 2 4:10 4
17 Lancaster 4 1 0 3 4:9 3
18 Leek Town 4 0 2 2 4:6 2
19 Stockton 4 0 1 3 2:7 1
20 Workington 4 0 1 3 3:9 1
21 Quorn 4 0 1 3 2:9 1
22 United of Manchester 4 0 1 3 1:8 1
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