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Afogados da Ingazeira vs Pesqueira

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Pernambucano 2018
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Afogados da Ingazeira play Pesqueira in the Campeonato Pernambucano 2018. It looks like a close match. Recently, Afogados da Ingazeira averaged 1.42 goals scored and 1.32 conceded. Pesqueira averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.27 conceded. In past meetings, Afogados da Ingazeira won 1, Pesqueira won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 17, 2018 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.66 for Afogados da Ingazeira and 1.09 for Pesqueira. This points to a Afogados da Ingazeira double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Afogados da Ingazeira
31%
Draws
20%
Pesqueira
Draw rate projection: 31% Favored: Afogados da Ingazeira

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

83% / High Confidence
  • Afogados da Ingazeira picked up more points recently compared to Pesqueira.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.66 vs 1.09 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 40%
Over 3.5 Goals 24%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 45%
Afogados da Ingazeira Clean Sheet 22%
Pesqueira Clean Sheet 20%
First Half Goal 66%
Second Half Goal 69%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Afogados da Ingazeira Pesqueira
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 13 5
Draws 8 11
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.42 0.8
Goals Conceded 1.32 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 0.43
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 0.57

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 17, 2018 Pernambucano
Afogados da Ingazeira vs Pesqueira
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Afogados da Ingazeira Compare

Top Goalscorer Oseas
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Pesqueira Compare

Top Goalscorer Tavares Nascimento J. D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.39
Avg xA / game 0.24

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Afogados da Ingazeira 49 / 100
Pesqueira 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Afogados da Ingazeira Pesqueira

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Afogados da Ingazeira or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +19.6%
2.44
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.6%
2.94
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Afogados da Ingazeira attacking → ← attacking Pesqueira

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Afogados da Ingazeira scored in 71% of their last 31 games.

Pesqueira let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Afogados da Ingazeira went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Pesqueira lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

47 Points in last 5 26
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.43
1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.57

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Nautico1054117:1019
2Central SC1054113:619
3Sport Recife1045113:617
4Salgueiro103529:1114
5Academica Vitoria1034314:1713
6Santa Cruz102719:913
7America PE1033415:1612
8Afogados da Ingazeira1033412:1312
9Flamengo Arcoverde101637:89
10Pesqueira101365:126
11Belo Jardim100649:156