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Afragolese vs Acerrana Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Montaperto G.
34' Event
Talamo N.
44' Event
Longo F.

AI Match Summary

Afragolese in this Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 5-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Afragolese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Afragolese
30%
Draws
0%
Acerrana
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Afragolese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Afragolese lately — more wins on the board than Acerrana.
  • Win probability leans Afragolese's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Afragolese Clean Sheet 68%
Acerrana Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Afragolese Acerrana
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 10 3
Draws 12 3
Losses 9 24
Goals Scored 1.19 0.6
Goals Conceded 1.19 2.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.67 1.23
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Afragolese vs Acerrana
5:2
Oct 26, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Acerrana vs Afragolese
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Afragolese Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferrara A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Montaperto G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.28
Avg xA / game 0.83

Acerrana Compare

Top Goalscorer Talamo N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Longo M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.12
Avg xA / game 0.68

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Afragolese 95 / 100
Acerrana 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Afragolese Acerrana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Afragolese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Acerrana's defensive record shows goals conceded in 90% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 5.50 goals per match.

Acerrana's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

Afragolese found the back of the net in 61% of recent matches (31 games).

Scoring Trends

Afragolese VS Acerrana
0.63 Goals Scored 0.71
1.75 Goals Conceded 2.71
75% Over 1.5 71%
38% Over 2.5 71%
25% Over 3.5 43%

Recent Form & Match History

Afragolese

(Home)
27 Sept
Citta di Anagni
4 : 0
Afragolese
20 Sept
Afragolese
4 : 0
US Venafro
16 Sept
Paganese
0 : 0
Afragolese
12 Sept
Afragolese
1 : 1
Sarnese
06 Sept
Gelbison
0 : 0
Afragolese
Page 1 of 7

Acerrana

(Away)
03 May
Acerrana
1 : 2
Manfredonia
26 Apr
Barletta
3 : 0
Acerrana
19 Apr
Acerrana
1 : 3
Pompei
12 Apr
Francavilla
4 : 1
Acerrana
02 Apr
Acerrana
2 : 5
Sarnese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barletta 34 20 10 4 54:20 70
2 Martina Calcio 34 18 8 8 47:30 62
3 Citta di Fasano 34 18 8 8 51:35 62
4 Paganese 34 17 7 10 36:32 58
5 A.C.D. Nardo 34 14 13 7 40:27 55
6 Gravina 34 16 7 11 50:40 55
7 Afragolese 34 13 10 11 45:46 49
8 Fidelis Andria 34 13 9 12 35:28 48
9 Virtus Francavilla 34 12 12 10 45:40 48
10 Real Normanna 34 10 13 11 27:26 43
11 Francavilla 34 11 10 13 39:38 43
12 Manfredonia 34 11 10 13 34:39 43
13 Sarnese 34 9 14 11 51:49 41
14 SS Nola 1925 34 11 8 15 42:50 41
15 Heraclea 34 10 8 16 31:39 38
16 Pompei 34 9 7 18 26:38 34
17 Ferrandina 34 7 9 18 21:43 30
18 Acerrana 34 3 5 26 20:74 14
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Out)