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Afragolese vs Atl. Lodigiani - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group G
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Kargbo I.
59' Event
Gallo M.
64' Event
Maiorano F.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group G game between Afragolese and Atl. Lodigiani finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Afragolese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Afragolese
15%
Draws
0%
Atl. Lodigiani
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Afragolese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Atl. Lodigiani's 1.24 goals per match outpaces what Afragolese have produced (1.1).
  • Model gives Afragolese a 85% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Afragolese Clean Sheet 68%
Atl. Lodigiani Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Afragolese Atl. Lodigiani
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 8 8
Draws 12 8
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 1.1 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.55
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 17, 2026 Serie D - Group G
Afragolese vs Atl. Lodigiani
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Afragolese Compare

Top Goalscorer Kargbo I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gallo M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Atl. Lodigiani Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Afragolese 95 / 100
Atl. Lodigiani 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Afragolese Atl. Lodigiani

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Afragolese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Atl. Lodigiani conceded in 83% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Atl. Lodigiani's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

Afragolese has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Afragolese VS Atl. Lodigiani
0.63 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.38
63% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Afragolese

(Home)
17 Oct
Afragolese
4 : 0
Atl. Lodigiani
11 Oct
Sarrabus Ogliastra
0 : 0
Afragolese
04 Oct
Afragolese
0 : 2
Ossese
27 Sept
Citta di Anagni
4 : 0
Afragolese
20 Sept
Afragolese
4 : 0
US Venafro
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Atl. Lodigiani

(Away)
17 Oct
Afragolese
4 : 0
Atl. Lodigiani
11 Oct
Atl. Lodigiani
0 : 1
Sarnese
04 Oct
Unipomezia
3 : 1
Atl. Lodigiani
27 Sept
Atl. Lodigiani
2 : 3
Trastevere Calcio
20 Sept
Certosa V. Campagnano
1 : 0
Atl. Lodigiani
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sarnese 8 6 2 0 13:6 20
2 Monastir 8 5 1 2 21:13 16
3 Certosa V. Campagnano 8 5 1 2 13:6 16
4 Trastevere Calcio 8 4 2 2 11:14 14
5 Paganese 8 4 1 3 17:10 13
6 Unipomezia 8 3 3 2 14:10 12
7 Ossese 8 3 3 2 11:8 12
8 Albalonga 8 3 3 2 13:11 12
9 Aranova 8 3 3 2 12:10 12
10 Anzio Calcio 1924 8 3 3 2 8:6 12
11 Afragolese 8 2 4 2 9:7 10
12 Citta di Anagni 8 3 1 4 10:12 10
13 Gelbison 8 3 1 4 10:13 10
14 US Venafro 8 2 2 4 6:11 8
15 Budoni Calcio 8 2 1 5 12:20 7
16 Sarrabus Ogliastra 8 1 3 4 7:11 6
17 Latte Dolce 8 1 3 4 9:14 6
18 Atl. Lodigiani 8 0 1 7 8:22 1
Promotion - Serie D - Group G (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group G (Play Out)