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Aglianese Calcio vs Certaldo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D 2023/2024
Aglianese Calcio Logo

Aglianese Calcio

0 - 0
FT
Certaldo Logo

Certaldo

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Aglianese Calcio
20%
Draws
40%
Certaldo
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Aglianese Calcio lately — more wins on the board than Certaldo.
  • Aglianese Calcio are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
Aglianese Calcio Clean Sheet 20%
Certaldo Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aglianese Calcio Certaldo
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 6
Draws 8 6
Losses 11 18
Goals Scored 1.07 0.73
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 28, 2024 Serie D - Group D
Certaldo vs Aglianese Calcio
3:2
Dec 16, 2023 Serie D - Group D
Aglianese Calcio vs Certaldo
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aglianese Calcio 76 / 100
Certaldo 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aglianese Calcio Certaldo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aglianese Calcio Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aglianese Calcio scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Certaldo has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Certaldo's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Aglianese Calcio VS Certaldo
0.75 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.63
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Aglianese Calcio

(Home)
05 May
Aglianese Calcio
0 : 4
Forli FC
28 Apr
Certaldo
3 : 2
Aglianese Calcio
21 Apr
Aglianese Calcio
0 : 1
SCD Progresso
14 Apr
Mezzolara
0 : 0
Aglianese Calcio
07 Apr
Aglianese Calcio
3 : 0
Sammaurese
Page 1 of 6

Certaldo

(Away)
05 May
Carpi
5 : 1
Certaldo
28 Apr
Certaldo
3 : 2
Aglianese Calcio
21 Apr
Ravenna
3 : 0
Certaldo
14 Apr
Certaldo
1 : 6
Corticella
07 Apr
Victor San Marino
1 : 1
Certaldo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Carpi 32 21 5 6 66:31 68
2 Ravenna 32 19 9 4 56:13 66
3 Corticella 32 18 3 11 59:40 57
4 Victor San Marino 32 17 6 9 44:37 57
5 Lentigione 32 16 8 8 49:31 56
6 Forli FC 32 16 7 9 48:35 55
7 Prato 32 12 8 12 37:41 44
8 Sangiuliano City 32 12 8 12 32:37 44
9 Fanfulla 32 11 10 11 28:35 43
10 Sant'Angelo 32 11 8 13 47:44 41
11 Aglianese Calcio 32 11 8 13 32:39 41
12 Imolese 32 12 6 14 31:33 40
13 Sammaurese 32 11 4 17 37:48 37
14 SCD Progresso 32 11 4 17 27:43 37
15 San Donnino 32 5 10 17 32:58 25
16 Certaldo 32 6 6 20 22:55 24
17 Mezzolara 32 5 6 21 23:50 21
18 Pistoiese 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 (Play Offs)