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Stadium Background

Agueda vs Castro Daire

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2020/2021 Estádio Municipal de Águeda, Águeda
Agueda Logo

Agueda

0 - 2
FT
Castro Daire Logo

Castro Daire

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Castro Daire in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2020/2021 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Castro Daire.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Agueda
20%
Draws
64%
Castro Daire
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Castro Daire

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Castro Daire have won more games recently than Agueda.
  • 64% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 19%
Over 2.5 Goals 18%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%
Agueda Clean Sheet 25%
Castro Daire Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Agueda Castro Daire
Matches Played 24 38
Wins 4 10
Draws 5 10
Losses 15 18
Goals Scored 0.79 0.92
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 0.86
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2021 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Agueda vs Castro Daire
0:2
Oct 18, 2020 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Castro Daire vs Agueda
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Agueda 37 / 100
Castro Daire 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Agueda Castro Daire

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Castro Daire Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castro Daire's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 38 matches.

H2H data points to 1.50 goals as a typical output.

Away concern: Castro Daire has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Agueda found the back of the net in 54% of recent matches (24 games).

Scoring Trends

- VS Castro Daire
0 Goals Scored 0.63
0 Goals Conceded 1
0% Over 1.5 38%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Agueda

(Home)
01 Oct
Agueda
0 : 1
Pevidem
10 Apr
Sanjoanense
1 : 0
Agueda
03 Apr
Agueda
0 : 1
Sao Joao de Ver
21 Mar
Agueda
0 : 2
Castro Daire
12 Mar
Agueda
0 : 0
Canelas 2010
Page 1 of 5

Castro Daire

(Away)
19 Sept
Castro Daire
0 : 1
Portimonense
13 Sept
Beira Mar
1 : 1
Castro Daire
22 Aug
Sousense
0 : 1
Castro Daire
16 Aug
Castro Daire
0 : 2
UD Ovarense
31 Aug
Castro Daire
1 : 2
Anadia
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Anadia 22 13 5 4 39:15 44
2 Canelas 2010 22 12 5 5 28:13 41
3 Lusitania FC 22 11 6 5 38:26 39
4 Sao Joao de Ver 22 10 8 4 30:14 38
5 Sanjoanense 22 8 12 2 26:13 36
6 Castro Daire 22 10 5 7 23:24 35
7 Valadares Gaia FC 22 10 3 9 36:27 33
8 SC Espinho 22 9 4 9 33:22 31
9 Beira Mar 22 9 4 9 30:23 31
10 Agueda 22 4 5 13 17:28 17
11 Lusitano FCV 22 4 4 14 17:34 16
12 Vila Cortez 22 1 1 20 8:86 4
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2020/2021 (Promotion Group)
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2020/2021 (Qualification)