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Aguia De Maraba vs Santa Rosa

Brazil Brazil

Copa Grao Para Estadio Municipal Zinho de Oliveira
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Aguia De Maraba play Santa Rosa in the Copa Grao Para. It looks like a close match. Recently, Aguia De Maraba averaged 1.59 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. Santa Rosa averaged 0.57 goals scored and 1.27 conceded. In past meetings, Aguia De Maraba won 2, Santa Rosa won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Feb 22, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.67 for Aguia De Maraba and 1.06 for Santa Rosa. This points to a Aguia De Maraba double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Aguia De Maraba
22%
Draws
26%
Santa Rosa
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Aguia De Maraba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

81% / High Confidence
  • Aguia De Maraba picked up more points recently compared to Santa Rosa.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.67 vs 1.06 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 68%
Over 2.5 Goals 35%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%
Aguia De Maraba Clean Sheet 22%
Santa Rosa Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 61%
Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aguia De Maraba Santa Rosa
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 16 9
Draws 7 4
Losses 9 17
Goals Scored 1.59 0.57
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.27

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Copa Grao Para
Aguia De Maraba vs Santa Rosa
1:0
Jan 25, 2026 Paraense
Aguia De Maraba vs Santa Rosa
2:0
Feb 3, 2024 Paraense
Santa Rosa vs Aguia De Maraba
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aguia De Maraba Compare

Top Goalscorer Felipe Para
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Santa Rosa Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aguia De Maraba 51 / 100
Santa Rosa 25 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aguia De Maraba Santa Rosa

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Aguia De Maraba or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +18%
2.27
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +20.8%
3.45
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Aguia De Maraba attacking → ← attacking Santa Rosa

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aguia De Maraba scored in 88% of their last 32 games.

Santa Rosa let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.67 goals.

Aguia De Maraba went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Santa Rosa lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

55 Points in last 5 31
2.13 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00