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Aguia Negra vs Corumbaense Prediction & H2H Stats

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Sul-Matogrossense
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AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Sul-Matogrossense matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Aguia Negra
30%
Draws
54%
Corumbaense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Corumbaense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Corumbaense have won more games recently than Aguia Negra.
  • Model gives Corumbaense a 54% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Sul-Matogrossense form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Aguia Negra here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Aguia Negra Clean Sheet 19%
Corumbaense Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aguia Negra Corumbaense
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 8 9
Draws 10 10
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.31 1.19
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 15, 2026 Sul-Matogrossense
Aguia Negra vs Corumbaense
1:1
Mar 2, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense
Aguia Negra vs Corumbaense
3:2
Feb 9, 2020 Sul-Matogrossense
Aguia Negra vs Corumbaense
2:1
Jan 27, 2019 Sul-Matogrossense
Aguia Negra vs Corumbaense
2:1
Mar 3, 2018 Sul-Matogrossense
Corumbaense vs Aguia Negra
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aguia Negra 16 / 100
Corumbaense 66 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aguia Negra Corumbaense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Corumbaense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Aguia Negra's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Corumbaense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 31 matches.

Recent resilience: Aguia Negra stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Aguia Negra VS Corumbaense
0.88 Goals Scored 1
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Aguia Negra

(Home)
01 Mar
Aguia Negra
1 : 2
Naviraiense
22 Feb
Ivinhema
2 : 1
Aguia Negra
15 Feb
Aguia Negra
1 : 1
Corumbaense
11 Feb
Aguia Negra
1 : 3
Clube de Regatas Aquidauana
08 Feb
Costa Rica
1 : 1
Aguia Negra
Page 1 of 6

Corumbaense

(Away)
18 Mar
Operario MS
2 : 1
Corumbaense
15 Mar
Corumbaense
1 : 2
Operario MS
11 Mar
Corumbaense
2 : 0
Dourados
08 Mar
Dourados
1 : 1
Corumbaense
01 Mar
Costa Rica
0 : 2
Corumbaense
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Naviraiense 9 5 3 1 13:9 18
2 Operario MS 9 4 5 0 14:5 17
3 Corumbaense 9 3 4 2 10:7 13
4 Ivinhema 9 3 3 3 10:11 12
5 Bataguassu 9 3 3 3 15:17 12
6 Dourados 9 2 4 3 15:14 10
7 Clube de Regatas Aquidauana 9 2 4 3 12:13 10
8 Pantanal 9 2 3 4 10:15 9
9 Costa Rica 9 1 5 3 6:10 8
10 Aguia Negra 9 1 4 4 9:13 7
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Sul-Matogrossense 2 2027 (Main)