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Aguia Negra vs Operario AC

Brazil Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense 2 2024
Aguia Negra Logo

Aguia Negra

1 - 0
FT
Operario AC Logo

Operario AC

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Aguia Negra in this Sul-Matogrossense 2 2024 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Aguia Negra.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Aguia Negra
30%
Draws
23%
Operario AC
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Aguia Negra

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Aguia Negra have won more games recently than Operario AC.
  • Model gives Aguia Negra a 47% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Sul-Matogrossense 2 2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Aguia Negra Clean Sheet 20%
Operario AC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aguia Negra Operario AC
Matches Played 35 26
Wins 13 1
Draws 11 8
Losses 11 17
Goals Scored 1.6 0.85
Goals Conceded 1.29 2.42
Expected Goals (xG) 1.42 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 3, 2024 Sul-Matogrossense 2
Aguia Negra vs Operario AC
1:0
Sep 28, 2024 Sul-Matogrossense 2
Operario AC vs Aguia Negra
0:0
Jan 30, 2019 Sul-Matogrossense
Aguia Negra vs Operario AC
6:1
Feb 14, 2018 Sul-Matogrossense
Aguia Negra vs Operario AC
5:1
Jan 24, 2018 Sul-Matogrossense
Operario AC vs Aguia Negra
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aguia Negra 40 / 100
Operario AC 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aguia Negra Operario AC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aguia Negra Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Operario AC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 96% of 26 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Attacking prowess: Aguia Negra scored in 77% of their last 35 outings.

Difficult form: Operario AC registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Aguia Negra VS -
1.63 Goals Scored 0
1.38 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
63% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Aguia Negra

(Home)
01 Mar
Aguia Negra
1 : 2
Naviraiense
22 Feb
Ivinhema
2 : 1
Aguia Negra
15 Feb
Aguia Negra
1 : 1
Corumbaense
11 Feb
Aguia Negra
1 : 3
Clube de Regatas Aquidauana
08 Feb
Costa Rica
1 : 1
Aguia Negra
Page 1 of 7

Operario AC

(Away)
10 Nov
Operario AC
0 : 1
Naviraiense
03 Nov
Aguia Negra
1 : 0
Operario AC
27 Oct
Comercial MS
4 : 2
Operario AC
19 Oct
Operario AC
0 : 2
7 de Setembro
05 Oct
Naviraiense
1 : 1
Operario AC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Naviraiense 8 5 3 0 15:3 18
2 Aguia Negra 8 4 3 1 10:6 15
3 7 de Setembro 8 3 2 3 12:15 11
4 Comercial MS 8 2 1 5 11:17 7
5 Operario AC 8 0 3 5 6:13 3
6 Misto 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2025 (Main)