Sport Picks

Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2017/2018

GD Sourense

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Aguias do Moradal play GD Sourense in the Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2017/2018. It looks like a close match. Recently, Aguias do Moradal averaged 0.91 goals scored and 2.09 conceded. GD Sourense averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.9 conceded. In past meetings, Aguias do Moradal won 3, GD Sourense won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 4, 2018 ended 4:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.23 for Aguias do Moradal and 1.88 for GD Sourense. This points to a Aguias do Moradal double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%

Aguias do Moradal

15%

Draws

34%

GD Sourense

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Aguias do Moradal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence

Aguias do Moradal picked up more points recently compared to GD Sourense.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.23 vs 1.88 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 84%

Over 2.5 Goals 55%

Over 3.5 Goals 33%

Over 4.5 Goals 17%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%

Aguias do Moradal Clean Sheet 10%

GD Sourense Clean Sheet 12%

First Half Goal 76%

Second Half Goal 80%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Aguias do Moradal	GD Sourense
Matches Played	32	30
Wins	7	3
Draws	3	8
Losses	22	19
Goals Scored	0.91	0.93
Goals Conceded	2.09	1.9
Expected Goals (xG)	0.63	1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.75	1.83

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 4, 2018 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C

Aguias do Moradal vs GD Sourense

Possession: 45% - 43% Cards: 3 - 0

4:2

Oct 29, 2017 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C

GD Sourense vs Aguias do Moradal

Possession: 55% - 50% Cards: 2 - 2

2:0

May 24, 2014 Campeonato de Portugal - Group E

GD Sourense vs Aguias do Moradal

Possession: 47% - 56% Cards: 2 - 2

3:0

Mar 30, 2014 Campeonato de Portugal - Group E

Aguias do Moradal vs GD Sourense

Possession: 47% - 45% Cards: 2 - 3

3:1

Dec 15, 2013 Campeonato de Portugal - Group E

Aguias do Moradal vs GD Sourense

Possession: 56% - 42% Cards: 1 - 2

2:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aguias do Moradal 48 / 100

GD Sourense 33 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Aguias do Moradal GD Sourense

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Aguias do Moradal or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +18.8%

2.33

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.2%

2.04

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Aguias do Moradal attacking → ← attacking GD Sourense

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aguias do Moradal scored in 44% of their last 32 games.

GD Sourense let in goals in 93% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Aguias do Moradal went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

GD Sourense lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

24 Points in last 5 17

0.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.00

2.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.83

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Leiria	30	23	4	3	68:21	73
2	Lusitano FCV	30	20	5	5	47:19	65
3	SB Castelo Branco	30	17	8	5	48:23	59
4	Sertanense	30	15	8	7	51:22	53
5	Agueda	30	14	7	9	39:32	49
6	Gafanha	30	13	9	8	36:23	48
7	Anadia	30	12	10	8	39:28	46
8	Maritimo B	30	14	3	13	44:30	45
9	Nogueirense	30	11	9	10	37:38	42
10	Oleiros	30	12	6	12	35:36	42
11	Marinhense	30	11	8	11	43:41	41
12	Mortagua FC	30	11	3	16	23:40	36
13	Ferreira de Aves	30	9	2	19	34:69	29
14	Aguias do Moradal	30	5	6	19	29:54	21
15	GD Sourense	30	3	8	19	28:57	17
16	Fornos de Algodres	30	0	4	26	15:83	4