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Aguila vs Inca Aruba - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

El Salvador El Salvador

Primera Division
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Gregori Diaz D.
54' Event
Andrada F.
70' Event
Garay C.

AI Match Summary

Aguila in this Primera Division matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Aguila.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Aguila
20%
Draws
32%
Inca Aruba
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Aguila

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Aguila lately — more wins on the board than Inca Aruba.
  • Model gives Aguila a 48% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Primera Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Aguila Clean Sheet 20%
Inca Aruba Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aguila Inca Aruba
Matches Played 28 15
Wins 12 4
Draws 8 4
Losses 8 7
Goals Scored 1.5 0.87
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.8
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Primera Division
Aguila vs Inca Aruba
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aguila Compare

Top Goalscorer Gregori Diaz D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Andrada F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Inca Aruba Compare

Top Goalscorer Paz B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aguila 67 / 100
Inca Aruba 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aguila Inca Aruba

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aguila Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Inca Aruba let in goals in 80% of their last 15 matches.

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Aguila found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (28 games).

Solid form: Aguila remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Aguila VS Inca Aruba
2 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Aguila

(Home)
03 Oct
Aguila
4 : 1
Cacahuatique
30 Sept
Aguila
2 : 1
Inter Santa Tecla
27 Sept
Luis Angel Firpo
2 : 0
Aguila
20 Sept
Platense Municipal
0 : 1
Aguila
12 Sept
Aguila
3 : 1
Inca Aruba
Page 1 of 6

Inca Aruba

(Away)
10 Oct
Inca Aruba
1 : 4
Platense Municipal
05 Oct
FAS
1 : 1
Inca Aruba
02 Oct
Inca Aruba
2 : 1
Municipal Limeno
27 Sept
Alianza FC
1 : 1
Inca Aruba
19 Sept
Inca Aruba
2 : 1
Fuerte San Francisco
Page 1 of 3

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FAS 13 8 3 2 24:12 27
2 Metapan 13 8 2 3 20:12 26
3 Luis Angel Firpo 13 7 4 2 23:9 25
4 Inter Santa Tecla 14 5 7 2 19:12 22
5 Aguila 14 5 5 4 22:18 20
6 Platense Municipal 15 5 4 6 19:20 19
7 Alianza FC 13 4 6 3 20:19 18
8 Municipal Limeno 14 5 2 7 19:19 17
9 Inca Aruba 15 4 4 7 13:27 16
10 Atletico Balboa 14 3 4 7 15:22 13
11 Fuerte San Francisco 15 2 6 7 11:24 12
12 Cacahuatique 15 2 5 8 15:26 11
Promotion - Primera Division (Apertura - Play Offs)
Promotion - Primera Division (Apertura - Play Offs)