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Aguilas FC vs UCAM Murcia

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Segunda RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Aguilas FC play UCAM Murcia in the Segunda RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Aguilas FC averaged 1.42 goals scored and 0.74 conceded. UCAM Murcia averaged 1.53 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. In past meetings, Aguilas FC won 1, UCAM Murcia won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Mar 22, 2026 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.38 for Aguilas FC and 1.13 for UCAM Murcia. This points to a Aguilas FC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Aguilas FC
22%
Draws
36%
UCAM Murcia
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Aguilas FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Aguilas FC picked up more points recently compared to UCAM Murcia.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.38 vs 1.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 76%
Over 2.5 Goals 48%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 55%
Aguilas FC Clean Sheet 21%
UCAM Murcia Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 72%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aguilas FC UCAM Murcia
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 18 15
Draws 5 4
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1.42 1.53
Goals Conceded 0.74 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
Aguilas FC vs UCAM Murcia
1:2
Jan 4, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
UCAM Murcia vs Aguilas FC
1:0
Feb 16, 2025 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
Aguilas FC vs UCAM Murcia
2:1
Oct 6, 2024 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
UCAM Murcia vs Aguilas FC
1:1
Mar 10, 2024 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
UCAM Murcia vs Aguilas FC
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aguilas FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Kouassi B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

UCAM Murcia Compare

Top Goalscorer Aquino D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aguilas FC 42 / 100
UCAM Murcia 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aguilas FC UCAM Murcia

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Aguilas FC or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23.5%
2.94
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.38
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Aguilas FC attacking → ← attacking UCAM Murcia

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aguilas FC scored in 74% of their last 31 games.

UCAM Murcia let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Aguilas FC went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

UCAM Murcia lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

59 Points in last 5 49
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1CD Extremadura341712554:3863
2Deportiva Minera34196950:3363
3Aguilas FC34187945:2561
4Xerez CD34178932:2459
5Jaen341610843:3358
6Recreativo Huelva34169941:2557
7UCAM Murcia341671149:4155
8Linares341114942:4547
9La Union (Malacitano)341361544:4345
10Lorca Deportiva341291332:3645
11Yeclano341281433:3344
12Antoniano341281438:4044
13CD Estepona341281440:4444
14Puente Genil3410101428:3740
15Xerez Deportivo FC348121434:4336
16Melilla347131436:4034
17Almeria B34492126:5321
18Malaga B34562332:6621