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Ahal vs FC Asgabat

Turkmenistan Turkmenistan

Yokary Liga
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Yokary Liga game between Ahal and FC Asgabat finished 4-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ahal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Ahal
11%
Draws
9%
FC Asgabat
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Ahal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ahal come out ahead of FC Asgabat on wins alone.
  • 80% — that's where the model lands on Ahal taking it.
  • Regular Yokary Liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Ahal Clean Sheet 20%
FC Asgabat Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ahal FC Asgabat
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 17 7
Draws 7 2
Losses 8 21
Goals Scored 2.13 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 20, 2026 Yokary Liga
Ahal vs FC Asgabat
4:3
May 10, 2026 Yokary Liga
FC Asgabat vs Ahal
0:3
Dec 15, 2025 Yokary Liga
Ahal vs FC Asgabat
1:2
Oct 4, 2025 Yokary Liga
FC Asgabat vs Ahal
1:1
May 13, 2025 Yokary Liga
Ahal vs FC Asgabat
4:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ahal 76 / 100
FC Asgabat 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ahal FC Asgabat

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AHA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ahal's goal record stands at 84% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

FC Asgabat let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 3.80 goals as a typical output.

Ahal has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ahal VS FC Asgabat
2.13 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 13%