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Ahal vs Sagadam - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Turkmenistan Turkmenistan

Yokary Liga
Sat, Nov 7, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ahal host Sagadam in the Yokary Liga. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Recent numbers: Ahal at 2.22 goals for, 1.19 against; Sagadam at 0.93 for, 1.43 against. Head-to-head, Ahal have won 4 to Sagadam's 1, with 0 draws. They last met on Sep 5, 2026, ending 2:1. xG projections (2.38 - 1.06) back Ahal to edge this. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Ahal
15%
Draws
42%
Sagadam
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ahal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Sagadam haven't matched Ahal's recent run of results.
  • 43% — that's where the model lands on Ahal taking it.
  • Regular Yokary Liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Ahal here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Ahal Clean Sheet 20%
Sagadam Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ahal Sagadam
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 19 9
Draws 5 5
Losses 8 16
Goals Scored 2.22 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.19 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Yokary Liga
Sagadam vs Ahal
2:1
Jun 7, 2026 Yokary Liga
Ahal vs Sagadam
1:0
Apr 26, 2026 Yokary Liga
Sagadam vs Ahal
1:3
Dec 1, 2025 Yokary Liga
Ahal vs Sagadam
1:0
Nov 26, 2025 Yokary Liga
Sagadam vs Ahal
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ahal 67 / 100
Sagadam 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ahal Sagadam

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ahal Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Ahal scored in 84% of their last 32 outings.

Sagadam has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Sagadam's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Ahal VS Sagadam
3.13 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.63
100% Over 1.5 88%
100% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Ahal

(Home)
07 Oct
Ahal
0 : 2
Altyn Asyr
28 Sept
Ahal
0 : 4
Arkadag
19 Sept
FC Asgabat
2 : 5
Ahal
12 Sept
Ahal
3 : 0
Nebitci
05 Sept
Sagadam
2 : 1
Ahal
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Sagadam

(Away)
11 Oct
Nebitci
3 : 0
Sagadam
19 Sept
Sagadam
2 : 1
Merw
12 Sept
Altyn Asyr
2 : 0
Sagadam
05 Sept
Sagadam
2 : 1
Ahal
30 Aug
Sagadam
0 : 3
Arkadag
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