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Ahli Khartoum vs Al Mourada

Sudan Sudan

Premier League 2018/2019
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ahli Khartoum play Al Mourada in the Premier League 2018/2019. It looks like a close match. Recently, Ahli Khartoum averaged 1.14 goals scored and 1.19 conceded. Al Mourada averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. In past meetings, Ahli Khartoum won 1, Al Mourada won 0, and they drew 4. Their last match on Jun 27, 2019 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.92 for Ahli Khartoum and 1.19 for Al Mourada. This points to a Ahli Khartoum double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Ahli Khartoum
35%
Draws
29%
Al Mourada
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Ahli Khartoum

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Ahli Khartoum picked up more points recently compared to Al Mourada.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.92 vs 1.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 35%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 46%
Ahli Khartoum Clean Sheet 20%
Al Mourada Clean Sheet 16%
First Half Goal 64%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ahli Khartoum Al Mourada
Matches Played 43 30
Wins 12 6
Draws 18 9
Losses 13 15
Goals Scored 1.14 0.8
Goals Conceded 1.19 1.5

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 27, 2019 Premier League
Ahli Khartoum vs Al Mourada
0:0
Mar 6, 2019 Premier League
Al Mourada vs Ahli Khartoum
0:0
Jan 2, 2019 Premier League
Ahli Khartoum vs Al Mourada
1:1
Sep 3, 2013 Premier League
Al Mourada vs Ahli Khartoum
1:2
Mar 5, 2013 Premier League
Ahli Khartoum vs Al Mourada
0:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ahli Khartoum 36 / 100
Al Mourada 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ahli Khartoum Al Mourada

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Ahli Khartoum or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +28.5%
3.57
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +20.8%
3.45
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Ahli Khartoum attacking → ← attacking Al Mourada

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ahli Khartoum scored in 67% of their last 43 games.

Al Mourada let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Ahli Khartoum went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Al Mourada lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

54 Points in last 5 27
0.63 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Al-Merreikh1495034:1032
2Al-Khartoum1473421:1524
3Hilal El Obied1454520:1719
4Hay Al Wadi1447312:1619
5Al Mourada1454513:1919
6Alamal SC Atbara1452714:2217
7Ahli Khartoum1426613:1512
8Al-Ahly Merowe1415810:238
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Al-Hilal Omdurman14101331:1031
2Ahli Shendi1484216:628
3Al Shorta1462618:1720
4Merreikh El-Fasher1445516:1517
5Hay al-Arab1444612:1716
6Al Hilal Kadougli1436513:1615
7Wad Hashim Sennar143657:1415
8Rabita Kosti141677:259