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Ajax vs Atalanta - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

Conference League Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
Thu, Oct 22, 2026
VS
07:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ajax host Atalanta in the Conference League. Little to choose between these two on current form. Atalanta have shipped 1.38 goals a game lately, while Ajax have conceded 1.18 and scored 2.25. Past meetings favor Atalanta slightly — 0-1-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Dec 9, 2020, ending 0:1. Model xG sits at 1.94 vs 1.25, favoring Ajax. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Ajax
20%
Draws
34%
Atalanta
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ajax

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Atalanta haven't matched Ajax's recent run of results.
  • Ajax are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Ajax Clean Sheet 19%
Atalanta Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ajax Atalanta
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 16 12
Draws 8 7
Losses 4 10
Goals Scored 2.25 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.18 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 9, 2020 Champions League
Ajax vs Atalanta
0:1
Oct 27, 2020 Champions League
Atalanta vs Ajax
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ajax 67 / 100
Atalanta 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ajax Atalanta

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ajax Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ajax scored in 93% of their last 28 games.

Atalanta let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Ajax went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ajax VS Atalanta
2.88 Goals Scored 1.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 50%
75% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Ajax

(Home)
10 Oct
Ajax
1 : 1
Nijmegen
19 Sept
Ajax
2 : 2
Excelsior
15 Sept
Ajax
5 : 1
Willem II
12 Sept
Sittard
1 : 5
Ajax
05 Sept
Ajax
1 : 3
PSV
Page 1 of 6

Atalanta

(Away)
12 Oct
Atalanta
3 : 1
Venezia
20 Sept
Juventus
2 : 0
Atalanta
12 Sept
Atalanta
1 : 2
Cagliari
05 Sept
AS Roma
2 : 1
Atalanta
31 Aug
Atalanta
1 : 0
Bologna
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mjallby 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Brighton 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Monaco 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Jablonec 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
5 Gent 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
6 St. Truiden 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
7 Freiburg 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
8 Atalanta 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
9 Ajax 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
10 Twente 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
11 Getafe 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
12 KuPS 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
13 CSKA Sofia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
14 Hajduk Split 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
15 Pafos 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
16 Aarhus 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
17 FC Copenhagen 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
18 Midtjylland 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
19 Nordsjaelland 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
20 Panathinaikos 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
21 Brann 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
22 Braga 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
23 Hearts 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
24 Lugano 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
25 Crvena zvezda 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
26 Thun 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
27 Trabzonspor 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
28 Borac Banja Luka 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
29 Kairat Almaty 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
30 KF Egnatia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
31 Inter Escaldes 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
32 FK Kauno Zalgiris 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
33 Univ. Craiova 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
34 Iberia 1999 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
35 Lincoln Red Imps 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
36 Riga FC 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)