Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ajax vs Benfica

Europe Europe

Champions League 2025/2026 Johan Cruijff Arena
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Dahl S.
60'
Sub
Wijndal O. In: Mokio J.
Out: Wijndal O.
69'
Weghorst W.

AI Match Summary

The Champions League 2025/2026 game between Ajax and Benfica finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Benfica.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Ajax
44%
Draws
20%
Benfica
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Benfica come out ahead of Ajax on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Ajax Clean Sheet 17%
Benfica Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ajax Benfica
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 11 17
Draws 10 6
Losses 7 6
Goals Scored 1.38 1.75
Goals Conceded 1 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 25, 2025 Champions League
Ajax vs Benfica
0:2
Mar 15, 2022 Champions League
Ajax vs Benfica
0:1
Feb 23, 2022 Champions League
Benfica vs Ajax
2:2
Nov 7, 2018 Champions League
Benfica vs Ajax
1:1
Oct 23, 2018 Champions League
Ajax vs Benfica
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ajax Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Benfica Compare

Top Goalscorer Dahl S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Barreiro L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ajax 36 / 100
Benfica 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ajax Benfica

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BEN Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ajax scored in 86% of their last 28 games.

Benfica has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Ajax stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ajax VS Benfica
1.38 Goals Scored 1.75
1 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Arsenal880023:424
2Bayern Munich870122:821
3Liverpool860220:818
4Tottenham852117:717
5Barcelona851222:1416
6Chelsea851217:1016
7Sporting CP851217:1116
8Manchester City851215:916
9Real Madrid850321:1215
10Inter850315:715
11PSG842221:1114
12Newcastle Utd842217:714
13Juventus834114:1013
14Atl. Madrid841317:1513
15Atalanta841310:1013
16Bayer Leverkusen833213:1412
17Dortmund832319:1711
18Olympiacos Piraeus832310:1411
19Club Brugge831415:1710
20Galatasaray83149:1110
21Monaco82428:1410
22Qarabag Agdam831413:2110
23Bodo/Glimt823314:159
24Benfica830510:129
25Marseille830511:149
26Pafos82338:119
27Royale Union SG83058:179
28PSV822416:168
29Ath Bilbao82249:148
30Napoli82249:158
31FC Copenhagen822412:218
32Ajax82068:216
33Eintracht Frankfurt811610:214
34Slavia Prague80355:193
35Villarreal80175:181
36Kairat Almaty80177:221