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AJE Bobo-Dioulasso vs Sonabel Ouagadougou Prediction & H2H Stats

Burkina Faso Burkina Faso

Premier League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

40' Event
Some R.
Assist: Bagayogo A.
44'
Ouattara I.
45' Event
Bagayogo A.
Assist: Some R.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between AJE Bobo-Dioulasso and Sonabel Ouagadougou finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AJE Bobo-Dioulasso.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
AJE Bobo-Dioulasso
15%
Draws
39%
Sonabel Ouagadougou
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: AJE Bobo-Dioulasso

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Sonabel Ouagadougou carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
AJE Bobo-Dioulasso Clean Sheet 68%
Sonabel Ouagadougou Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AJE Bobo-Dioulasso Sonabel Ouagadougou
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 6 8
Draws 8 10
Losses 16 11
Goals Scored 0.9 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 31, 2026 Premier League
AJE Bobo-Dioulasso vs Sonabel Ouagadougou
4:0
Dec 18, 2025 Premier League
Sonabel Ouagadougou vs AJE Bobo-Dioulasso
2:0
May 4, 2019 Premier League
AJE Bobo-Dioulasso vs Sonabel Ouagadougou
0:1
Sep 15, 2018 Premier League
Sonabel Ouagadougou vs AJE Bobo-Dioulasso
0:0
May 13, 2018 Premier League
Sonabel Ouagadougou vs AJE Bobo-Dioulasso
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AJE Bobo-Dioulasso Compare

Top Goalscorer Some R.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Bagayogo A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Sonabel Ouagadougou Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AJE Bobo-Dioulasso 42 / 100
Sonabel Ouagadougou 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AJE Bobo-Dioulasso Sonabel Ouagadougou

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Sonabel Ouagadougou conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.

AJE Bobo-Dioulasso has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Difficult form: Sonabel Ouagadougou registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

AJE Bobo-Dioulasso found the back of the net in 57% of recent matches (30 games).

Scoring Trends

AJE Bobo-Dioulasso VS Sonabel Ouagadougou
1.63 Goals Scored 0.88
2 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

AJE Bobo-Dioulasso

(Home)
10 May
AJE Bobo-Dioulasso
4 : 2
Sporting Cascades
03 May
Etoile Filante
3 : 0
AJE Bobo-Dioulasso
26 Apr
AJE Bobo-Dioulasso
4 : 2
ASFA Yennega
17 Apr
AS Douanes
1 : 1
AJE Bobo-Dioulasso
12 Apr
AJE Bobo-Dioulasso
1 : 2
USFA
Page 1 of 6

Sonabel Ouagadougou

(Away)
26 Sept
FocuSport
3 : 2
Sonabel Ouagadougou
18 Sept
Sonabel Ouagadougou
0 : 1
Majestic
10 May
Sonabel Ouagadougou
1 : 0
ASFA Yennega
03 May
Sonabel Ouagadougou
2 : 0
ASF Dioulasso
26 Apr
AS Douanes
2 : 1
Sonabel Ouagadougou
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rahimo 30 20 9 1 47:15 69
2 USFA 30 12 13 5 31:17 49
3 Sporting Cascades 30 10 13 7 25:18 43
4 AS Douanes 30 10 13 7 29:29 43
5 Majestic 30 11 10 9 26:27 43
6 CFFEB 30 10 10 10 25:25 40
7 Salitas 30 10 10 10 29:31 40
8 Kadiogo 30 10 8 12 27:27 38
9 ASFA Yennega 30 9 11 10 24:28 38
10 Vitesse 30 9 10 11 25:25 37
11 Real Du Faso 30 9 10 11 21:23 37
12 ASF Dioulasso 30 9 10 11 25:31 37
13 Sonabel Ouagadougou 30 8 12 10 24:28 36
14 Etoile Filante 30 7 12 11 22:29 33
15 Bobo-Dioulasso 30 6 9 15 11:28 27
16 AJE Bobo-Dioulasso 30 6 8 16 27:37 26
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)