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AJEL vs Guediawaye

Senegal Senegal

Ligue 1 2025/2026
AJEL Logo

AJEL

1 - 0
FT
Guediawaye Logo

Guediawaye

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 2025/2026 game between AJEL and Guediawaye finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AJEL.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
AJEL
20%
Draws
23%
Guediawaye
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: AJEL

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • AJEL carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans AJEL's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular Ligue 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.4%
AJEL Clean Sheet 68%
Guediawaye Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AJEL Guediawaye
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 7
Draws 9 8
Losses 6 15
Goals Scored 0.9 0.97
Goals Conceded 0.63 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 13, 2026 Ligue 1
AJEL vs Guediawaye
1:0
Jan 25, 2026 Ligue 1
Guediawaye vs AJEL
0:1
May 4, 2025 Ligue 1
AJEL vs Guediawaye
1:1
Dec 7, 2024 Ligue 1
Guediawaye vs AJEL
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AJEL 59 / 100
Guediawaye 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AJEL Guediawaye

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AJEL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AJEL scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Guediawaye conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.75 goals when they meet.

AJEL went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

AJEL VS Guediawaye
0.38 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
38% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

AJEL

(Home)
04 Jun
Generation Foot
0 : 1
AJEL
22 May
AJEL
2 : 1
Linguere
17 May
US Goree
2 : 1
AJEL
13 May
AJEL
1 : 0
Guediawaye
10 May
Teungueth
0 : 0
AJEL
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Guediawaye

(Away)
04 Jun
Guediawaye
0 : 1
Teungueth
22 May
Mbour
0 : 2
Guediawaye
17 May
Guediawaye
2 : 3
Wally Daan
13 May
AJEL
1 : 0
Guediawaye
10 May
Guediawaye
1 : 1
Ouakam
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Teungueth 30 13 15 2 21:6 54
2 AJEL 30 15 9 6 27:19 54
3 Generation Foot 30 13 9 8 37:22 48
4 US Goree 30 11 15 4 29:14 48
5 Wally Daan 30 10 14 6 29:24 44
6 Ouakam 30 8 18 4 23:16 42
7 ASC Jaraaf 30 9 14 7 21:16 41
8 Casa 30 7 19 4 29:20 40
9 Pikine 30 7 13 10 20:19 34
10 Mbour 30 5 18 7 18:21 33
11 ASC HLM 30 5 18 7 18:24 33
12 Dakar Sacre-Coeur 30 5 16 9 24:37 31
13 Guediawaye 30 7 8 15 29:34 28
14 Linguere 30 3 16 11 22:36 25
15 Sonacos 30 4 13 13 18:39 25
16 AS Camberene 30 3 15 12 16:34 24
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)