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AJEL vs US Goree

Senegal Senegal

Ligue 1 2025/2026
AJEL Logo

AJEL

1 - 0
FT
US Goree Logo

US Goree

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

AJEL in this Ligue 1 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored AJEL.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
AJEL
35%
Draws
24%
US Goree
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: AJEL

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • US Goree haven't matched AJEL's recent run of results.
  • 41% — that's where the model lands on AJEL taking it.
  • Regular Ligue 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 19%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 23.200000000000003%
AJEL Clean Sheet 68%
US Goree Clean Sheet 23%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AJEL US Goree
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 11
Draws 9 15
Losses 6 4
Goals Scored 0.9 0.97
Goals Conceded 0.63 0.47
Expected Goals (xG) 0.44 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Ligue 1
US Goree vs AJEL
2:1
Jan 31, 2026 Ligue 1
AJEL vs US Goree
1:0
Jun 26, 2025 Ligue 1
US Goree vs AJEL
2:1
Feb 9, 2025 Ligue 1
AJEL vs US Goree
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AJEL 50 / 100
US Goree 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AJEL US Goree

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AJEL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AJEL scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: AJEL remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

US Goree has conceded goals in 40% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

AJEL VS US Goree
0.25 Goals Scored 0.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.63
25% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

AJEL

(Home)
04 Jun
Generation Foot
0 : 1
AJEL
22 May
AJEL
2 : 1
Linguere
17 May
US Goree
2 : 1
AJEL
13 May
AJEL
1 : 0
Guediawaye
10 May
Teungueth
0 : 0
AJEL
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US Goree

(Away)
04 Jun
US Goree
0 : 0
Mbour
22 May
Wally Daan
1 : 1
US Goree
17 May
US Goree
2 : 1
AJEL
13 May
Ouakam
2 : 0
US Goree
10 May
US Goree
1 : 1
ASC HLM
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Teungueth 30 13 15 2 21:6 54
2 AJEL 30 15 9 6 27:19 54
3 Generation Foot 30 13 9 8 37:22 48
4 US Goree 30 11 15 4 29:14 48
5 Wally Daan 30 10 14 6 29:24 44
6 Ouakam 30 8 18 4 23:16 42
7 ASC Jaraaf 30 9 14 7 21:16 41
8 Casa 30 7 19 4 29:20 40
9 Pikine 30 7 13 10 20:19 34
10 Mbour 30 5 18 7 18:21 33
11 ASC HLM 30 5 18 7 18:24 33
12 Dakar Sacre-Coeur 30 5 16 9 24:37 31
13 Guediawaye 30 7 8 15 29:34 28
14 Linguere 30 3 16 11 22:36 25
15 Sonacos 30 4 13 13 18:39 25
16 AS Camberene 30 3 15 12 16:34 24
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)