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Akademiya Ontustik vs Arys

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

First League
Thu, Jul 9, 2026
VS
12:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Akademiya Ontustik play Arys in the First League. Akademiya Ontustik are favorites here. Recently, Akademiya Ontustik averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.73 conceded. Arys averaged 1 goals scored and 2.5 conceded. In past meetings, Akademiya Ontustik won 0, Arys won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Aug 3, 2023 ended 3:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.00 for Akademiya Ontustik and 1.25 for Arys. This points to a Akademiya Ontustik double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

61%
Akademiya Ontustik
15%
Draws
24%
Arys
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Akademiya Ontustik

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

87% / Very High Confidence
  • Akademiya Ontustik picked up more points recently compared to Arys.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.00 vs 1.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 70%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 83%
Over 2.5 Goals 70%
Over 3.5 Goals 42%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65%
Akademiya Ontustik Clean Sheet 19%
Arys Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 75%
Second Half Goal 79%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Akademiya Ontustik Arys
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 14 4
Draws 4 3
Losses 12 21
Goals Scored 1.67 1
Goals Conceded 1.73 2.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 2.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 3, 2023 First League
Arys vs Akademiya Ontustik
3:3
Apr 27, 2023 First League
Akademiya Ontustik vs Arys
2:5

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Akademiya Ontustik 59 / 100
Arys 24 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Akademiya Ontustik Arys

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Akademiya Ontustik Win (1)
Secondary Pick Akademiya Ontustik & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +15.3%
1.89
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.2%
1.56
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Akademiya Ontustik attacking → ← attacking Arys

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Akademiya Ontustik scored in 87% of their last 30 games.

Arys let in goals in 96% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 6.50 goals.

Akademiya Ontustik went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Arys lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

46 Points in last 5 15
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Kairat Almaty 21192036:429
2Shakhter Karagandy1191133:428
3Turan1180323:824
4Akademiya Ontustik1162317:1320
5FC Astana 21152417:1917
6Khan Tengri1152415:1717
7Taraz1151518:1416
8Jaiyq115068:1515
9FC Ekibastuz1135312:1914
10Kaspij Aktau 21133514:1612
11Aktobe 21133516:3212
12Tobol 21113716:326
13Arys1111910:254
14Yelimay Semey 2110386:233