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Stadium Background

Akademiya Ontustik vs Arys

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

First League
Our Tip

Match Events

32' Event
Nuraly B.
Assist: Dzhamalov B.
52' Event
Kazakhbay A.
Assist: Imanali M.
90' Event
Saduakas M.
Assist: Abdimutalipov K.

AI Match Summary

Arys in this First League matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Arys.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Akademiya Ontustik
20%
Draws
35%
Arys
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Akademiya Ontustik

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Akademiya Ontustik have won more games recently than Arys.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Akademiya Ontustik taking it.
  • Regular First League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Arys have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Akademiya Ontustik Clean Sheet 20%
Arys Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Akademiya Ontustik Arys
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 17 7
Draws 4 4
Losses 9 19
Goals Scored 1.63 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.33 2.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 9, 2026 First League
Akademiya Ontustik vs Arys
1:2
Aug 3, 2023 First League
Arys vs Akademiya Ontustik
3:3
Apr 27, 2023 First League
Akademiya Ontustik vs Arys
2:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Akademiya Ontustik Compare

Top Goalscorer Nuraly B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Arys Compare

Top Goalscorer Kazakhbay A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Saduakas M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Akademiya Ontustik 36 / 100
Arys 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Akademiya Ontustik Arys

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Akademiya Ontustik scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

Arys's defensive record shows goals conceded in 93% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 5.33 goals when they meet.

Akademiya Ontustik has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Akademiya Ontustik VS Arys
2 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Akademiya Ontustik

(Home)
17 Sept
Akademiya Ontustik
0 : 0
Jaiyq
10 Sept
Yelimay Semey 2
0 : 1
Akademiya Ontustik
03 Sept
Akademiya Ontustik
2 : 1
Aktobe 2
27 Aug
Kaspij Aktau 2
1 : 2
Akademiya Ontustik
20 Aug
Akademiya Ontustik
3 : 2
FC Ekibastuz
Page 1 of 6

Arys

(Away)
17 Sept
Arys
4 : 1
Aktobe 2
11 Sept
Kaspij Aktau 2
1 : 2
Arys
03 Sept
Arys
3 : 1
FC Ekibastuz
27 Aug
Kairat Almaty 2
1 : 0
Arys
20 Aug
Arys
1 : 1
Taraz
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Shakhter Karagandy 23 20 2 1 64:8 62
2 Kairat Almaty 2 23 17 5 1 66:12 56
3 Turan 23 16 2 5 51:21 50
4 Akademiya Ontustik 23 13 4 6 36:27 43
5 FC Astana 2 23 10 3 10 42:43 33
6 Jaiyq 23 9 4 10 21:26 31
7 Taraz 23 8 6 9 30:32 30
8 FC Ekibastuz 23 7 5 11 31:53 26
9 Kaspij Aktau 2 23 7 4 12 29:41 25
10 Khan Tengri 23 7 4 12 29:44 25
11 Arys 23 7 3 13 29:43 24
12 Aktobe 2 23 6 5 12 38:69 23
13 Tobol 2 23 4 4 15 40:57 16
14 Yelimay Semey 2 23 3 3 17 17:47 12
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