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Akhmat Grozny vs Orenburg

Russia Russia

Russian Cup 2025/2026 Akhmat-Arena
Our Tip

Match Events

56'
Sub
Silva I. In: Cacintura E.
Out: Silva I.
56'
Sub
Konate M. In: Melkadze G.
Out: Konate M.
56'
Sub
Mansilla B. In: Keliano M.
Out: Mansilla B.

AI Match Summary

The Russian Cup 2025/2026 game between Akhmat Grozny and Orenburg finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Orenburg.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Akhmat Grozny
11%
Draws
9%
Orenburg
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Akhmat Grozny

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Orenburg haven't matched Akhmat Grozny's recent run of results.
  • Akhmat Grozny are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Cup games in Russian Cup 2025/2026 usually bring a different intensity than the league.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Akhmat Grozny Clean Sheet 20%
Orenburg Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Akhmat Grozny Orenburg
Matches Played 29 26
Wins 15 12
Draws 8 3
Losses 6 11
Goals Scored 1.5 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 5, 2025 Premier League
Akhmat Grozny vs Orenburg
1:0
Sep 30, 2025 Russian Cup
Akhmat Grozny vs Orenburg
0:1
Aug 22, 2025 Premier League
Orenburg vs Akhmat Grozny
2:2
Aug 13, 2025 Russian Cup
Orenburg vs Akhmat Grozny
2:1
Dec 8, 2024 Premier League
Akhmat Grozny vs Orenburg
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Akhmat Grozny Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Orenburg Compare

Top Goalscorer Poroykov S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Akhmat Grozny 76 / 100
Orenburg 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Akhmat Grozny Orenburg

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AKH Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Akhmat Grozny's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Akhmat Grozny has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Orenburg has conceded goals in 73% of their last 26 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Akhmat Grozny VS Orenburg
1.5 Goals Scored 1.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Zenit St Petersburg660019:518
2Orenburg63036:148
3Rubin Kazan62045:96
4Akhmat Grozny61058:104
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Krasnodar650114:514
2Dynamo Moscow630311:611
3Krylya Sovetov Samara63037:118
4PFC Sochi61058:183
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Spartak Moscow640213:513
2Dynamo Makhachkala65019:713
3FK Rostov62048:97
4Pari Nizhny Novgorod61054:133
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1CSKA Moscow64029:513
2Lokomotiv Moscow640210:413
3Baltika62046:95
4Akron Togliatti62046:135