Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Akragas vs Nuova Gioiese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Grillo P.
(Penalty)
7' Event
Distefano G. M.
53' Event
Montefusco F.
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 game between Akragas and Nuova Gioiese finished 6-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Akragas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Akragas
20%
Draws
64%
Nuova Gioiese
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Nuova Gioiese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

16% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Akragas come out ahead of Nuova Gioiese on wins alone.
  • Model gives Akragas a 16% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.200000000000003%
Akragas Clean Sheet 68%
Nuova Gioiese Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Akragas Nuova Gioiese
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 6 2
Draws 6 3
Losses 17 24
Goals Scored 1 0.52
Goals Conceded 1.59 2.41
Expected Goals (xG) 0.85 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 14, 2024 Serie D - Group I
Akragas vs Nuova Gioiese
6:0
Sep 17, 2023 Serie D - Group I
Nuova Gioiese vs Akragas
0:1
Jan 18, 2015 Serie D - Group I
Nuova Gioiese vs Akragas
0:0
Sep 14, 2014 Serie D - Group I
Akragas vs Nuova Gioiese
1:0
Mar 2, 2014 Serie D - Group I
Nuova Gioiese vs Akragas
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Akragas Compare

Top Goalscorer Distefano G. M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Marrale G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.65
Avg xA / game 0.42

Nuova Gioiese Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Akragas 77 / 100
Nuova Gioiese 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Akragas Nuova Gioiese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Akragas Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Nuova Gioiese conceded in 93% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Nuova Gioiese's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Akragas scored in 52% of their last 29 games.

Scoring Trends

Akragas VS -
0.5 Goals Scored 0
1.75 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Akragas

(Home)
09 Mar
Reggina
2 : 0
Akragas
02 Mar
Akragas
0 : 0
AS Acireale
23 Feb
USD Ragusa
3 : 0
Akragas
16 Feb
Akragas
1 : 2
S. Agata
09 Feb
Scafatese
3 : 1
Akragas
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Nuova Gioiese

(Away)
05 May
Castrovillari
0 : 2
Nuova Gioiese
28 Apr
Nuova Gioiese
1 : 2
Trapani
21 Apr
USD Ragusa
2 : 1
Nuova Gioiese
14 Apr
Nuova Gioiese
2 : 2
S. Agata
28 Mar
Licata
4 : 0
Nuova Gioiese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Trapani 34 30 4 0 95:15 94
2 Siracusa 34 25 6 3 79:26 81
3 Vibonese 34 22 6 6 67:29 72
4 Reggina 34 19 8 7 54:25 65
5 AS Acireale 34 15 9 10 39:41 54
6 S. Agata 34 15 7 12 46:35 52
7 Real Casalnuovo 34 15 6 13 52:49 51
8 USD Ragusa 34 14 8 12 41:38 50
9 Canicatti 34 14 6 14 55:51 48
10 Igea Virtus 34 13 6 15 38:40 45
11 Licata 34 12 7 15 43:54 43
12 Akragas 34 12 6 16 42:53 42
13 Sancataldese 34 9 10 15 32:43 37
14 Portici 1906 34 8 8 18 32:55 32
15 San Luca 34 6 12 16 37:55 29
16 Locri 1909 34 7 7 20 34:68 28
17 Castrovillari 34 2 12 20 29:76 17
18 Nuova Gioiese 34 3 2 29 18:80 11
19 Lamezia Terme 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 (Play Out)