Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Akranes vs Stjarnan

Iceland Iceland

Besta deild karla Akranesvöllur, Akranes
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Haraldsson H.
Assist: Jonsson V.
9' Event
Jonsson V.
Assist: Berndsen B.
26' Event
Gislason J. G. E.
Assist: Eyjolfsson G.

AI Match Summary

The Besta deild karla game between Akranes and Stjarnan finished 5-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Akranes.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Akranes
30%
Draws
39%
Stjarnan
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Stjarnan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Low Confidence
  • Akranes carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Akranes's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Besta deild karla form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81.8%
Akranes Clean Sheet 13%
Stjarnan Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Akranes Stjarnan
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 12
Draws 6 5
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 2.07 1.87
Goals Conceded 1.8 2.17
Expected Goals (xG) 2.19 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 26, 2026 Besta deild karla
Akranes vs Stjarnan
5:1
May 3, 2026 Besta deild karla
Stjarnan vs Akranes
1:2
Jun 22, 2025 Besta deild karla
Akranes vs Stjarnan
0:3
Apr 14, 2025 Besta deild karla
Stjarnan vs Akranes
2:1
Sep 30, 2024 Besta deild karla
Stjarnan vs Akranes
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Akranes Compare

Top Goalscorer Ellertsson M. P.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Haraldsson H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.68
Avg xA / game 1.09

Stjarnan Compare

Top Goalscorer Bjarnason A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Akranes 39 / 100
Stjarnan 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Akranes Stjarnan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Akranes Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Akranes's goal record stands at 90% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Stjarnan let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Akranes went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Akranes VS Stjarnan
2.5 Goals Scored 1.75
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.88
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
75% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Akranes

(Home)
20 Sept
Akranes
4 : 1
Breidablik
13 Sept
KR Reykjavik
5 : 1
Akranes
06 Sept
Akranes
3 : 1
KR Reykjavik
30 Aug
Valur
2 : 2
Akranes
23 Aug
Akranes
1 : 1
Hafnarfjordur
Page 1 of 6

Stjarnan

(Away)
20 Sept
Hafnarfjordur
5 : 2
Stjarnan
13 Sept
Stjarnan
2 : 0
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
06 Sept
Stjarnan
2 : 2
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
31 Aug
Breidablik
0 : 2
Stjarnan
23 Aug
Stjarnan
4 : 2
Thor Akureyri
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 22 16 5 1 67:21 53
2 Fram 22 13 6 3 56:42 45
3 KR Reykjavik 22 13 5 4 74:49 44
4 Breidablik 22 8 6 8 43:41 30
5 Akranes 22 8 6 8 39:41 30
6 Keflavik 22 8 4 10 33:38 28
7 Stjarnan 22 8 4 10 42:50 28
8 Valur 22 8 3 11 39:45 27
9 Hafnarfjordur 22 4 9 9 27:39 21
10 Thor Akureyri 22 6 3 13 22:50 21
11 KA Akureyri 22 5 5 12 35:48 20
12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 22 4 6 12 32:45 18
Promotion - Besta deild karla (Championship Group)
Relegation - Besta deild karla (Relegation Group)