Sport Picks

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Akranes vs Stjarnan

Iceland Iceland

Besta deild karla Akranesvöllur, Akranes
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Haraldsson H.
Assist: Jonsson V.
9' Event
Jonsson V.
Assist: Berndsen B.
26' Event
Gislason J. G. E.
Assist: Eyjolfsson G.

AI Match Summary

The Besta deild karla game between Akranes and Stjarnan finished 5-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Akranes.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Akranes
17%
Draws
13%
Stjarnan
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Akranes

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Stjarnan's 2 goals per match outpaces what Akranes have produced (1.88).
  • Win probability leans Akranes's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular Besta deild karla form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 85%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 85%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81%
Akranes Clean Sheet 10%
Stjarnan Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Akranes Stjarnan
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 13 13
Draws 4 7
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.88 2
Goals Conceded 2.5 2.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.50 2.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 26, 2026 Besta deild karla
Akranes vs Stjarnan
5:1
May 3, 2026 Besta deild karla
Stjarnan vs Akranes
1:2
Jun 22, 2025 Besta deild karla
Akranes vs Stjarnan
0:3
Apr 14, 2025 Besta deild karla
Stjarnan vs Akranes
2:1
Sep 30, 2024 Besta deild karla
Stjarnan vs Akranes
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Akranes Compare

Top Goalscorer Ellertsson M. P.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Haraldsson H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Stjarnan Compare

Top Goalscorer Bjarnason A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Akranes 65 / 100
Stjarnan 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Akranes Stjarnan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AKR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Akranes's goal record stands at 90% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Stjarnan let in goals in 90% of their last 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Akranes went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Akranes VS Stjarnan
1.88 Goals Scored 2
2.5 Goals Conceded 2.5
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 100%
50% Over 3.5 88%

Recent Form & Match History

Akranes

(Home)
26 Jul
Akranes
5 : 1
Stjarnan
20 Jul
Keflavik
5 : 2
Akranes
12 Jul
KA Akureyri
3 : 2
Akranes
04 Jul
Akranes
1 : 2
Breidablik
29 Jun
Akranes
0 : 2
Fram
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Stjarnan

(Away)
26 Jul
Akranes
5 : 1
Stjarnan
23 Jul
Stjarnan
1 : 0
Ilves
19 Jul
KR Reykjavik
5 : 0
Stjarnan
16 Jul
Vikingur
2 : 2
Stjarnan
09 Jul
Stjarnan
3 : 1
Vikingur
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vikingur Reykjavik16141154:1243
2KR Reykjavik16112358:3635
3Fram16104241:2834
4Breidablik1685335:2629
5Valur1661926:3219
6Keflavik1654725:3319
7Akranes1653826:3418
8IBV Vestmannaeyjar1644826:3416
9KA Akureyri1643924:3215
10Stjarnan1643929:4115
11Hafnarfjordur1627720:3113
12Thor Akureyri16331017:4212
Promotion - Besta deild karla (Championship Group)
Relegation - Besta deild karla (Relegation Group)