Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Aktobe vs Atyrau

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

Premier League Koblandy Batyr Stadium, Aktobe
Our Tip

Match Events

6'
Pastoriza A.
34'
Kalmuratov K.
42'
Shushenachev A.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Aktobe
30%
Draws
16%
Atyrau
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Aktobe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Aktobe have won more games recently than Atyrau.
  • Model gives Aktobe a 54% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Aktobe Clean Sheet 68%
Atyrau Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aktobe Atyrau
Matches Played 31 26
Wins 13 4
Draws 6 11
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.39 0.88
Goals Conceded 1.39 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 9, 2026 Premier League
Atyrau vs Aktobe
1:1
May 17, 2026 Premier League
Aktobe vs Atyrau
1:1
Jul 5, 2025 Premier League
Aktobe vs Atyrau
2:0
Mar 30, 2025 Premier League
Atyrau vs Aktobe
0:4
Sep 29, 2024 Kazakhstan Cup
Atyrau vs Aktobe
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aktobe Compare

Top Goalscorer Laturnus V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Atyrau Compare

Top Goalscorer Trufanov Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aktobe 59 / 100
Atyrau 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aktobe Atyrau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AKT Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aktobe's goal record stands at 74% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Atyrau's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 26 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Aktobe went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Aktobe VS Atyrau
1.88 Goals Scored 0.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Aktobe

(Home)
09 Aug
Atyrau
1 : 1
Aktobe
01 Aug
Kyzylzhar
3 : 1
Aktobe
25 Jul
Aktobe
2 : 1
Okzhetpes
19 Jul
Altai
2 : 4
Aktobe
12 Jul
FC Astana
3 : 2
Aktobe
Page 1 of 7

Atyrau

(Away)
09 Aug
Atyrau
1 : 1
Aktobe
01 Aug
Atyrau
1 : 1
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
26 Jul
Tobol
1 : 0
Atyrau
18 Jul
Atyrau
1 : 3
Kairat Almaty
05 Jul
Atyrau
1 : 2
Kaspij Aktau
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ordabasy 21 15 4 2 40:15 49
2 Kairat Almaty 20 13 6 1 39:14 45
3 FC Astana 20 11 5 4 33:21 38
4 Okzhetpes 21 9 6 6 30:29 33
5 Aktobe 21 9 5 7 30:25 32
6 Yelimay Semey 20 8 7 5 29:24 31
7 Ulytau 21 7 7 7 17:21 28
8 Kyzylzhar 21 6 5 10 25:30 23
9 Zhenis 20 5 8 7 17:23 23
10 Kaspij Aktau 21 6 4 11 22:29 22
11 Tobol 20 6 4 10 21:28 22
12 Atyrau 20 3 11 6 15:19 20
13 Kaisar Kyzylorda 20 3 11 6 15:22 20
14 Zhetysu Taldykorgan 21 4 7 10 23:34 19
15 Ertis Pavlodar 20 3 8 9 20:28 17
16 Altai 21 3 8 10 18:32 17
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)