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Al-Afreeki vs Al Nasr

Libya Libya

Premier League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Al-Afreeki play Al Nasr in the Premier League. Al Nasr are favorites here. Recently, Al-Afreeki averaged 1.74 goals scored and 1.53 conceded. Al Nasr averaged 1.6 goals scored and 0.9 conceded. In past meetings, Al-Afreeki won 0, Al Nasr won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 15, 2026 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.20 for Al-Afreeki and 1.00 for Al Nasr. This points to a Al Nasr double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

15%
Al-Afreeki
25%
Draws
60%
Al Nasr
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Al Nasr

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence
  • Al-Afreeki picked up more points recently compared to Al Nasr.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.20 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 58%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 85%
Over 2.5 Goals 58%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 56%
Al-Afreeki Clean Sheet 23%
Al Nasr Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 77%
Second Half Goal 81%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al-Afreeki Al Nasr
Matches Played 19 30
Wins 7 17
Draws 2 8
Losses 10 5
Goals Scored 1.74 1.6
Goals Conceded 1.53 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 15, 2026 Premier League
Al-Afreeki vs Al Nasr
1:2
Mar 12, 2026 Premier League
Al Nasr vs Al-Afreeki
2:0
Jan 7, 2026 Premier League
Al-Afreeki vs Al Nasr
0:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al-Afreeki 18 / 100
Al Nasr 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al-Afreeki Al Nasr

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Nasr Win (2)
Secondary Pick Al Nasr & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +114.3%
14.29
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.4%
1.92
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Al-Afreeki attacking → ← attacking Al Nasr

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al-Afreeki scored in 79% of their last 19 games.

Al Nasr let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.33 goals.

Al-Afreeki went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Al Nasr lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

23 Points in last 5 59
1.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.63
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88