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Stadium Background

Al Ahed vs Safa

Lebanon Lebanon

Premier League Beirut Municipal Stadium, Beirut
Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Hayek K.
45' Event
Reda H.
45' Event
Antar F.
Assist: Haidar M.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Al Ahed and Safa finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Ahed.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Al Ahed
30%
Draws
58%
Safa
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Safa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Safa carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Safa are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Al Ahed Clean Sheet 14%
Safa Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Ahed Safa
Matches Played 33 31
Wins 15 16
Draws 5 5
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1.55 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.39 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 24, 2026 Premier League
Al Ahed vs Safa
4:1
May 18, 2026 Premier League
Al Ahed vs Safa
1:2
Dec 13, 2025 Premier League
Safa vs Al Ahed
0:1
Jul 12, 2025 Premier League
Al Ahed vs Safa
1:1
Jun 15, 2025 Premier League
Al Ahed vs Safa
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Ahed Compare

Top Goalscorer Reda H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Antar F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Safa Compare

Top Goalscorer Hayek K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Ahed 10 / 100
Safa 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Ahed Safa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Safa Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Ahed scored in 76% of their last 33 games.

Safa has conceded goals in 74% of their last 31 outings.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Recent resilience: Al Ahed stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Ahed VS Safa
1.63 Goals Scored 2
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Ahed

(Home)
01 Aug
Al Ahed
2 : 2
Jwayya SC
28 Jul
Nejmeh SC
2 : 1
Al Ahed
24 Jul
Al Ahed
1 : 1
Al Ansar
20 Jul
Jwayya SC
2 : 0
Al Ahed
16 Jul
Al Ahed
0 : 2
Nejmeh SC
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Safa

(Away)
03 Jul
Safa
4 : 0
Al-Mabarrah
28 Jun
Jwayya SC
1 : 1
Safa
24 Jun
Al Ahed
4 : 1
Safa
20 Jun
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah
2 : 4
Safa
12 Jun
Al Sahel
0 : 1
Safa
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Ansar 21 17 2 2 53:9 53
2 Nejmeh SC 21 14 4 3 42:10 46
3 Al Ahed 21 13 1 7 34:22 40
4 Jwayya SC 21 11 5 5 31:14 38
5 Safa 21 11 3 7 30:17 36
6 Al Hikma 21 9 3 9 29:27 30
7 Al Sahel 21 7 6 8 22:21 27
8 Al-Mabarrah 21 5 7 9 12:36 22
9 Al Riyadi Abbasiyah 21 5 5 11 16:30 20
10 Tadamon 21 3 8 10 12:26 17
11 Racing 21 0 1 20 4:61 1
12 Bourj 11 3 1 7 8:20 10
Promotion - AFC Challenge League (Main)
Relegation - Premier League (Relegation)