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Al Ahli Nabatiya vs Al Ghazieh

Lebanon Lebanon

Premier League 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Kaawar M.
82'
Al Sati K.
85' Event
Nawatta C.

AI Match Summary

Al Ghazieh in this Premier League 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al Ghazieh.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Al Ahli Nabatiya
39%
Draws
30%
Al Ghazieh
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Al Ghazieh at 0.75 per game, Al Ahli Nabatiya at 0.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Premier League 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Al Ghazieh here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.4%
Al Ahli Nabatiya Clean Sheet 24%
Al Ghazieh Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Ahli Nabatiya Al Ghazieh
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 6 6
Draws 11 9
Losses 13 18
Goals Scored 0 0.75
Goals Conceded 0 2

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2024 Premier League
Al Ahli Nabatiya vs Al Ghazieh
0:3
Apr 7, 2024 Premier League
Al Ahli Nabatiya vs Al Ghazieh
0:2
Feb 24, 2024 Premier League
Al Ghazieh vs Al Ahli Nabatiya
2:1
Oct 1, 2023 Premier League
Al Ghazieh vs Al Ahli Nabatiya
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Ahli Nabatiya Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Al Ghazieh Compare

Top Goalscorer Kaawar M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Nawatta C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Ahli Nabatiya 33 / 100
Al Ghazieh 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Ahli Nabatiya Al Ghazieh

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GHA Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Al Ghazieh conceded in 76% of 33 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Away concern: Al Ghazieh has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Al Ahli Nabatiya's goal record stands at 43% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Al Ghazieh
0 Goals Scored 0.75
0 Goals Conceded 2
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%