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Al Ahli vs Al-Duhail

Qatar Qatar

QSL 2025/2026 Hamad bin Khalifa Stadium, Doha
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Vlap M.
39'
Gannan S.
45'
Abdelaziz M.

AI Match Summary

The QSL 2025/2026 game between Al Ahli and Al-Duhail finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Ahli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Al Ahli
35%
Draws
45%
Al-Duhail
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Al-Duhail

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Al-Duhail come out ahead of Al Ahli on wins alone.
  • 45% — that's where the model lands on Al-Duhail taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Al Ahli Clean Sheet 20%
Al-Duhail Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Ahli Al-Duhail
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 10 11
Draws 5 8
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1.57 1.41
Goals Conceded 1.93 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 8, 2026 QSL
Al Ahli vs Al-Duhail
2:1
Nov 21, 2025 QSL
Al-Duhail vs Al Ahli
2:3
Sep 2, 2025 QSL Cup
Al Ahli vs Al-Duhail
0:0
Mar 8, 2025 QSL
Al-Duhail vs Al Ahli
4:2
Oct 19, 2024 QSL
Al Ahli vs Al-Duhail
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Ahli Compare

Top Goalscorer Vlap M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Draxler J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Al-Duhail Compare

Top Goalscorer Bourigeaud B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Ahli 10 / 100
Al-Duhail 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Ahli Al-Duhail

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al-Duhail Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Ahli scored in 82% of their last 28 games.

Defensive concern: Al-Duhail conceded in 86% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Solid form: Al Ahli remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Al Ahli VS Al-Duhail
1.88 Goals Scored 1.75
2.38 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 38%
75% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Ahli

(Home)
20 Sept
Al Ahli
0 : 1
Al-Shahaniya
11 Sept
Al Rayyan
3 : 0
Al Ahli
03 Sept
Al Ahli
1 : 0
Qatar SC
28 Aug
Al Ahli
3 : 3
Lusail
22 Aug
Al-Sadd
3 : 1
Al Ahli
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Al-Duhail

(Away)
28 Sept
Al-Shahaniya
1 : 3
Al-Duhail
21 Sept
Al-Duhail
2 : 0
Al Arabi (Qatar)
12 Sept
Al-Duhail
1 : 1
Al-Shahaniya
05 Sept
Al Rayyan
1 : 1
Al-Duhail
29 Aug
Al-Duhail
1 : 1
Al Arabi (Qatar)
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al-Sadd 22 14 3 5 56:30 45
2 Shamal 22 12 4 6 39:28 40
3 Al Rayyan 22 11 5 6 46:32 38
4 Al-Gharafa 22 11 3 8 36:36 36
5 Al-Duhail 22 9 6 7 40:27 33
6 Al Arabi (Qatar) 22 9 5 8 37:41 32
7 Al Wakra 22 8 6 8 36:34 30
8 Qatar SC 22 8 5 9 32:36 29
9 Al Ahli 22 8 2 12 34:43 26
10 Al Sailiya 22 6 4 12 25:38 22
11 Al-Shahaniya 22 6 3 13 22:39 21
12 Umm-Salal 22 6 2 14 37:56 20
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 (Main)
Relegation - QSL 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - QSL 2 (Main)