Sport Picks
Al Ahly Tripoli vs Al-Khmes Prediction & H2H Stats
Libya
Premier League 2024/2025 Tripoli International Stadium, Tripoli 
Match Events
18'
18'
Al Warfali S.
Assist: Ellafi M.
66'
66'
Ellafi M.
Assist: Bshara T.
75'
75'
Debbar M.
Assist: Al Amouri A.
AI Match Summary
Al Ahly Tripoli in this Premier League 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al Ahly Tripoli.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
30%
19%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Al Ahly Tripoli
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Al Ahly Tripoli have won more games recently than Al-Khmes.
- Al Ahly Tripoli are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and Al Ahly Tripoli have taken 5 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
Al Ahly Tripoli Clean Sheet 20%
Al-Khmes Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Al Ahly Tripoli | Al-Khmes |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 45 | 29 |
| Wins | 35 | 7 |
| Draws | 8 | 5 |
| Losses | 2 | 17 |
| Goals Scored | 2.31 | 0.9 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.4 | 1.72 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 18, 2026 Premier League
Al-Khmes vs Al Ahly Tripoli
1:3
Feb 2, 2026 Premier League
Al Ahly Tripoli vs Al-Khmes
5:2
Apr 6, 2025 Premier League
Al Ahly Tripoli vs Al-Khmes
4:1
Jan 23, 2025 Premier League
Al-Khmes vs Al Ahly Tripoli
0:3
Apr 30, 2024 Premier League
Al Ahly Tripoli vs Al-Khmes
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Al Ahly Tripoli Compare
Top Goalscorer Al Warfali S.
1 Goals Assists Leader Ellafi M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6
Al-Khmes Compare
Top Goalscorer Debbar M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Al Ahly Tripoli 85 / 100
Al-Khmes 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Al Ahly Tripoli Al-Khmes
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Al Ahly Tripoli Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Al Ahly Tripoli found the back of the net in 89% of recent matches (45 games).
These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.
Al Ahly Tripoli has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Al-Khmes has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.
Scoring Trends
Al Ahly Tripoli VS Al-Khmes
2.25 Goals Scored 0.75
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Al Ahly Tripoli
(Home) 12 Sept
Al Ahly Tripoli
4 : 0 KMKM
05 Sept
KMKM
0 : 3 Al Ahly Tripoli
24 May
Al Ahly Tripoli
0 : 0 Asswehly
20 May
Al Ahly Tripoli
2 : 1 Olympic Azzaweya
14 May
Al Madina
0 : 1 Al Ahly Tripoli
Page 1 of 9
12 Sept
Al Ahly Tripoli
4 : 0 KMKM
24 May
Al Ahly Tripoli
0 : 0 Asswehly
20 May
Al Ahly Tripoli
2 : 1 Olympic Azzaweya
10 May
Al Ahly Tripoli
1 : 0 Al Ittihad Misurata
23 Apr
Al Ahly Tripoli
1 : 2 Asswehly
Page 1 of 5
Al-Khmes
(Away) 23 Apr
Abu Salim
0 : 0 Al-Khmes
18 Apr
Al-Khmes
1 : 3 Al Ahly Tripoli
13 Apr
Al Watan
0 : 1 Al-Khmes
08 Apr
Al-Khmes
2 : 2 Assabah
16 Mar
Al Malaab El Libby
2 : 0 Al-Khmes
Page 1 of 6
23 Apr
Abu Salim
0 : 0 Al-Khmes
13 Apr
Al Watan
0 : 1 Al-Khmes
16 Mar
Al Malaab El Libby
2 : 0 Al-Khmes
04 Mar
Al Qadisiyah
0 : 2 Al-Khmes
02 Feb
Al Ahly Tripoli
5 : 2 Al-Khmes
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Nasr | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 20:9 | 32 |
| 2 | Al Akhdar | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 25:11 | 31 |
| 3 | Al Tahaddi | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 20:14 | 25 |
| 4 | Khaleej Sirte | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 17:19 | 19 |
| 5 | Al-Suqoor | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 16:20 | 19 |
| 6 | Al-Anwar | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 18:26 | 19 |
| 7 | Al Borouq | 16 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 14:15 | 18 |
| 8 | Al Ansar | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 15:26 | 14 |
| 9 | Wefaq Ajdabiya | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 9:14 | 13 |
Promotion - Premier League 2024/2025 (Winners stage)
Relegation - Premier League 2024/2025 (Relegation)
Relegation - Premier League 2024/2025 (Relegation)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ahly Benghazi | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 31:6 | 34 |
| 2 | Al Hilal Benghazi | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 30:12 | 34 |
| 3 | Al Sadaqa | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 16:13 | 24 |
| 4 | Al Taawun | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 19:14 | 22 |
| 5 | Al-Andalus | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 17:18 | 18 |
| 6 | Al Murooj SC | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14:25 | 12 |
| 7 | Al Branes | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 11:28 | 8 |
| 8 | Al Mahdia | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 8:30 | 6 |
Promotion - Premier League 2024/2025 (Winners stage)
Relegation - Premier League 2024/2025 (Relegation)
Relegation - Premier League 2024/2025 (Relegation)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asswehly | 16 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 36:12 | 40 |
| 2 | Olympic Azzaweya | 16 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 28:13 | 37 |
| 3 | Al-Ittihad | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 24:10 | 28 |
| 4 | Al-Majd | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 25:29 | 21 |
| 5 | Shabab Al-Ghar | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 18:18 | 20 |
| 6 | Abu Salim | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 20:24 | 20 |
| 7 | Al Bashaer | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 19:21 | 17 |
| 8 | Al Tirsana | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 22:22 | 15 |
| 9 | Al Nahda | 16 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 5:48 | -3 |
Promotion - Premier League 2024/2025 (Winners stage)
Relegation - Premier League 2024/2025 (Relegation)
Relegation - Premier League 2024/2025 (Relegation)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ahly Tripoli | 16 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 38:4 | 42 |
| 2 | Al Madina | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 27:14 | 34 |
| 3 | Al Ittihad Misurata | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 14:14 | 23 |
| 4 | Al Watan | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 19:22 | 19 |
| 5 | Al Malaab El Libby | 16 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 13:15 | 18 |
| 6 | Al-Khmes | 16 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 11:20 | 16 |
| 7 | Abi Al Ashar | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 10:18 | 15 |
| 8 | Al Dahra | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 11:22 | 15 |
| 9 | Asaria | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 13:27 | 12 |
Promotion - Premier League 2024/2025 (Winners stage)
Relegation - Premier League 2024/2025 (Relegation)
Relegation - Premier League 2024/2025 (Relegation)
