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Al Ahly Tripoli vs Al Shomooa - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Libya Libya

Premier League Tripoli International Stadium, Tripoli
Fri, Nov 6, 2026
VS
05:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Al Ahly Tripoli host Al Shomooa in the Premier League. Recent form is the clearest guide to this one. Recent numbers: Al Ahly Tripoli at 2.39 goals for, 0.46 against; Al Shomooa at 1.33 for, 1.17 against. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. Model xG sits at 1.19 vs 1.31, favoring Al Ahly Tripoli. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Al Ahly Tripoli
20%
Draws
28%
Al Shomooa
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Al Ahly Tripoli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Al Ahly Tripoli lately — more wins on the board than Al Shomooa.
  • 52% — that's where the model lands on Al Ahly Tripoli taking it.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Al Ahly Tripoli Clean Sheet 18%
Al Shomooa Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Ahly Tripoli Al Shomooa
Matches Played 28 18
Wins 22 6
Draws 4 4
Losses 2 8
Goals Scored 2.39 1.33
Goals Conceded 0.46 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Ahly Tripoli 67 / 100
Al Shomooa 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Ahly Tripoli Al Shomooa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Ahly Tripoli Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Ahly Tripoli found the back of the net in 89% of recent matches (28 games).

Recent resilience: Al Ahly Tripoli stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Al Shomooa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 18 matches.

Al Shomooa lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Ahly Tripoli VS Al Shomooa
1.88 Goals Scored 2
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.5
50% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 17%
25% Over 3.5 17%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Ahly Tripoli

(Home)
24 Oct
Al Ahly Tripoli
4 : 1
Welwalo Adigrat
16 Oct
Welwalo Adigrat
0 : 4
Al Ahly Tripoli
12 Sept
Al Ahly Tripoli
4 : 0
KMKM
05 Sept
KMKM
0 : 3
Al Ahly Tripoli
24 May
Al Ahly Tripoli
0 : 0
Asswehly
Page 1 of 6

Al Shomooa

(Away)
26 Oct
Al Malaab El Libby
1 : 0
Al Shomooa
14 Oct
Al Shomooa
0 : 1
Al Ittihad
25 Apr
Abi Al Ashar
0 : 8
Al Shomooa
20 Apr
Al Shomooa
2 : 0
Al Majd
15 Apr
Ittihad Gharyan
1 : 1
Al Shomooa
Page 1 of 4

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Olympic Azzaweya 3 2 1 0 4:2 7
2 Al Ittihad 2 2 0 0 4:0 6
3 Al Madina 2 2 0 0 5:2 6
4 Al Malaab El Libby 3 2 0 1 2:3 6
5 Al Ittihad Misurata 3 1 1 1 4:3 4
6 Al Bashaer 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
7 Assabah 2 1 0 1 4:3 3
8 Al Majd 1 0 0 1 2:1 0
9 Al Ahly Tripoli 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
10 Asswehly 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
11 Al Shomooa 2 0 0 2 0:2 0
12 Al Watan 2 0 0 2 0:3 0
13 Al Khmes 2 0 0 2 0:4 0
14 Shabab Al Ghar 1 0 0 1 0:4 0
Promotion - Premier League (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Military Union 3 2 1 0 12:4 7
2 Al Ahly Benghazi 2 2 0 0 2:0 6
3 Al Taawun 3 1 2 0 4:2 5
4 Al Nasr 2 1 1 0 4:1 4
5 Al Akhdar 2 1 1 0 2:0 4
6 Darnes 2 1 1 0 1:0 4
7 Al Tahaddi 3 1 1 1 5:5 4
8 Al Afreeki 3 1 0 2 1:3 3
9 Al Hilal Benghazi 2 0 2 0 2:2 2
10 Al Sadaqa 2 0 1 1 0:2 1
11 Khaleej Sirte 2 0 1 1 0:3 1
12 Al Batnan 2 0 1 1 2:7 1
13 Al Sharara 2 0 0 2 0:2 0
14 Al Jadida 2 0 0 2 1:5 0
Promotion - Premier League (Play Offs)