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Al Ahly Tripoli vs Welwalo Adigrat - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Africa Africa

CAF Confederation Cup Tripoli International Stadium, Tripoli
Al Ahly Tripoli Logo

Al Ahly Tripoli

4 - 1
FT
Welwalo Adigrat Logo

Welwalo Adigrat

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 4-1. This leg finished 4-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

61%
Al Ahly Tripoli
20%
Draws
19%
Welwalo Adigrat
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Al Ahly Tripoli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Al Ahly Tripoli lately — more wins on the board than Welwalo Adigrat.
  • Win probability leans Al Ahly Tripoli's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Al Ahly Tripoli have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Al Ahly Tripoli, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Al Ahly Tripoli Clean Sheet 20%
Welwalo Adigrat Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Ahly Tripoli Welwalo Adigrat
Matches Played 28 26
Wins 22 11
Draws 4 8
Losses 2 7
Goals Scored 2.39 1.12
Goals Conceded 0.46 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 0.53
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 24, 2026 CAF Confederation Cup
Al Ahly Tripoli vs Welwalo Adigrat
4:1
Oct 16, 2026 CAF Confederation Cup
Welwalo Adigrat vs Al Ahly Tripoli
0:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Ahly Tripoli 85 / 100
Welwalo Adigrat 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Ahly Tripoli Welwalo Adigrat

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Ahly Tripoli Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Ahly Tripoli found the back of the net in 89% of recent matches (28 games).

Games between these two average 4.50 goals.

Al Ahly Tripoli has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Away concern: Welwalo Adigrat has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Al Ahly Tripoli VS Welwalo Adigrat
2.5 Goals Scored 0.88
0.17 Goals Conceded 0.63
67% Over 1.5 50%
67% Over 2.5 13%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Ahly Tripoli

(Home)
24 Oct
Al Ahly Tripoli
4 : 1
Welwalo Adigrat
16 Oct
Welwalo Adigrat
0 : 4
Al Ahly Tripoli
12 Sept
Al Ahly Tripoli
4 : 0
KMKM
05 Sept
KMKM
0 : 3
Al Ahly Tripoli
24 May
Al Ahly Tripoli
0 : 0
Asswehly
Page 1 of 6

Welwalo Adigrat

(Away)
24 Oct
Al Ahly Tripoli
4 : 1
Welwalo Adigrat
16 Oct
Welwalo Adigrat
0 : 4
Al Ahly Tripoli
09 Oct
Halaba Ketema FC
1 : 1
Welwalo Adigrat
12 Sept
Welwalo Adigrat
3 : 1
Hilal Alsahil
04 Sept
Hilal Alsahil
2 : 1
Welwalo Adigrat
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Mogadishu City 1
Kitara 4
TBD -
Al Ahly -
ZED FC 5
ASAS 1
TBD -
Azam -
Hilal Alsahil 3
Welwalo Adigrat 4
KMKM 0
Al Ahly Tripoli 7
Madani 2
Tusker 3
Al-Ghazala 1
Singida Black Stars 10
Panthers 5
ASPAC 5
TBD -
USM Alger -
AS Psi 2
Korhogo 4
TBD -
FAR Rabat -
Douane 3
Hafia 2
TBD -
CR Belouizdad -
El Kanemi Warriors 3
UDIB 1
TBD -
Raja Casablanca -
Academie de FAD 3
East End Lions 3
Shooting 1
CS Sfaxien 2
Zarzis 3
Diambars de Saly 2
Vitesse 1
Real Bamako 2
Diarra 2
Nations FC 1
AS ZAM 0
ASKO Kara 6
UNAM 1
Kabuscorp 5
TBD -
AS Maniema -
Red Arrows 4
Inate FC Rouge Vakinakaratra 0
TBD -
Kaizer Chiefs -
Durban City 3
Rukinzo 1
Port Louis 2
Jwaneng Galaxy 1
Panthere 1
Rayon Sport 1
Atomic Ngome 0
Associacao Black Bulls 1
Virunga 1
Bazar Brothers 0
Green Mamba 0
Primeiro de Agosto 4
Final
Kitara 1
Al Ahly 2
ZED FC 1
Azam 2
Welwalo Adigrat 1
Al Ahly Tripoli 8
Tusker 0
Singida Black Stars 1
Panthers -
USM Alger -
Korhogo 0
FAR Rabat 0
Douane -
CR Belouizdad -
El Kanemi Warriors 2
Raja Casablanca 4
Academie de FAD 1
CS Sfaxien 2
Zarzis 3
Real Bamako 5
Diarra 3
ASKO Kara 2
Kabuscorp 1
AS Maniema 4
Red Arrows 2
Kaizer Chiefs 1
Durban City 3
Port Louis 1
Rayon Sport 2
Associacao Black Bulls 4
Virunga 1
Primeiro de Agosto 3