Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Al Ahly vs Arab Contractors (Al Mokawloon)

Egypt Egypt

League Cup Al Salam Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Gamal M.
(Penalty)
24'
Hamed M.
33'
Sub
Abdelkarim H. In: Zaalouk M.
Out: Abdelkarim H.

AI Match Summary

The League Cup game between Al Ahly and Arab Contractors (Al Mokawloon) finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Arab Contractors (Al Mokawloon).

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Al Ahly
28%
Draws
22%
Arab Contractors (Al Mokawloon)
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Al Ahly

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Al Ahly come out ahead of Arab Contractors (Al Mokawloon) on wins alone.
  • 50% — that's where the model lands on Al Ahly taking it.
  • It's a cup tie, so expect more urgency than a normal League Cup game.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Al Ahly here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Al Ahly Clean Sheet 68%
Arab Contractors (Al Mokawloon) Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Ahly Arab Contractors (Al Mokawloon)
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 9
Draws 7 15
Losses 9 6
Goals Scored 1.83 0.75
Goals Conceded 0.83 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.83 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.83 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 5, 2026 Premier League
Arab Contractors (Al Mokawloon) vs Al Ahly
1:3
Dec 30, 2025 League Cup
Al Ahly vs Arab Contractors (Al Mokawloon)
0:3
Aug 4, 2024 Premier League
Al Ahly vs Arab Contractors (Al Mokawloon)
4:0
Nov 4, 2023 Premier League
Arab Contractors (Al Mokawloon) vs Al Ahly
1:2
Jul 16, 2023 Premier League
Arab Contractors (Al Mokawloon) vs Al Ahly
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Ahly Compare

Avg xG / game 1.41
Avg xA / game 0.92

Arab Contractors (Al Mokawloon) Compare

Top Goalscorer Ojera J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Onyemaechi K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Ahly 59 / 100
Arab Contractors (Al Mokawloon) 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Ahly Arab Contractors (Al Mokawloon)

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AHL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Ahly's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.80 goals as a typical output.

Arab Contractors (Al Mokawloon) let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Al Ahly stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Ahly VS Arab Contractors (Al Mokawloon)
1.83 Goals Scored 0.75
0.83 Goals Conceded 0.5
100% Over 1.5 50%
67% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1El Gaish64117:313
2Arab Contractors (Al Mokawloon)63219:511
3Enppi63127:510
4Pharco FC63038:109
5Ghazl El Mahallah62224:48
6Al Ahly62047:96
7Ceramica Cleopatra61052:83
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Petrojet650115:515
2El Gouna641110:513
3Wadi Degla631212:610
4National Bank Egypt614111:77
5El Ismaily61235:75
6Modern Sport61233:75
7Pyramids61053:223
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al Masry63215:311
2ZED FC63126:410
3Al Ittihad Alexandria61505:28
4Kahrabaa Ismailia615012:118
5Smouha62224:58
6Zamalek62137:97
7Haras El Hodood60244:92