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Al Arabi (Qatar) vs Al-Gharafa

Qatar Qatar

QSL Grand Hamad Stadium
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Match Events

2' Event
Joselu
Assist: Brahimi Y.
24'
Al Naimi M.
27'
Coman F.

AI Match Summary

Al Arabi (Qatar) host Al-Gharafa in the QSL. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Al Arabi (Qatar) have averaged 1.75 scored and 1.38 conceded recently, against Al-Gharafa's 1.5 scored and 2.13 conceded. Head-to-head, Al Arabi (Qatar) have won 0 to Al-Gharafa's 5, with 0 draws. They last met on Jan 15, 2026, ending 1:2. xG projections (1.20 - 1.00) back Al-Gharafa to edge this. Al-Gharafa in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Al Arabi (Qatar)
6%
Draws
90%
Al-Gharafa
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Al-Gharafa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Al Arabi (Qatar) has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Al-Gharafa.
  • Model forecasts a 90% win probability edge for Al-Gharafa.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in QSL provide steady trend data.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Al Arabi (Qatar) Clean Sheet 20%
Al-Gharafa Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Arabi (Qatar) Al-Gharafa
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 16 12
Draws 4 4
Losses 10 17
Goals Scored 1.75 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.38 2.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 15, 2026 QSL
Al Arabi (Qatar) vs Al-Gharafa
1:2
Aug 22, 2025 QSL
Al-Gharafa vs Al Arabi (Qatar)
2:1
Apr 4, 2025 QSL
Al Arabi (Qatar) vs Al-Gharafa
1:3
Oct 31, 2024 QSL
Al-Gharafa vs Al Arabi (Qatar)
3:1
Mar 30, 2024 QSL
Al Arabi (Qatar) vs Al-Gharafa
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Arabi (Qatar) Compare

Top Goalscorer Sarabia P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Al-Gharafa Compare

Top Goalscorer Joselu
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hamed J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Arabi (Qatar) 10 / 100
Al-Gharafa 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Arabi (Qatar) Al-Gharafa

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GHA Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Arabi (Qatar) scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Al-Gharafa let in goals in 82% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Al Arabi (Qatar) went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Al-Gharafa lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Arabi (Qatar) VS Al-Gharafa
1.75 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.13
100% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al-Sadd22143556:3045
2Shamal22124639:2840
3Al Rayyan22115646:3238
4Al-Gharafa22113836:3636
5Al-Duhail2296740:2733
6Al Arabi (Qatar)2295837:4132
7Al Wakra2286836:3430
8Qatar SC2285932:3629
9Al Ahli22821234:4326
10Al Sailiya22641225:3822
11Al-Shahaniya22631322:3921
12Umm-Salal22621437:5620