Sport Picks
Al Gharafa vs Al Ahli - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Qatar
QSL Thani bin Jassim Stadium, Doha 
AI Match Summary
Al Gharafa host Al Ahli in the QSL. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. Al Gharafa have averaged 1.44 scored and 2.03 conceded recently, against Al Ahli's 1.55 scored and 1.94 conceded. Past meetings favor Al Gharafa slightly — 3-2-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 18, 2026, ending 1:4. The numbers (1.81 xG vs 1.56) point toward Al Ahli. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Look at the last few games and Al Gharafa come out ahead of Al Ahli on wins alone.
- Model gives Al Gharafa a 42% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Al Gharafa | Al Ahli |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 34 | 31 |
| Wins | 11 | 10 |
| Draws | 4 | 6 |
| Losses | 19 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 1.44 | 1.55 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.03 | 1.94 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.81 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Al Ahli's defensive record shows goals conceded in 90% of 31 matches.
H2H data points to 3.80 goals as a typical output.
Attacking prowess: Al Gharafa scored in 76% of their last 34 outings.
Solid form: Al Gharafa remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Recent Form & Match History
Al Gharafa
(Home)Al Ahli
(Away)League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Rayyan | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10:2 | 13 |
| 2 | Al Sadd | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 21:10 | 12 |
| 3 | Al Duhail | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9:3 | 9 |
| 4 | Al Arabi (Qatar) | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8:5 | 9 |
| 5 | Shamal | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10:10 | 8 |
| 6 | Lusail | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7:4 | 5 |
| 7 | Al Wakra | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7:11 | 5 |
| 8 | Al Shahaniya | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7:9 | 4 |
| 9 | Al Ahli | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:9 | 4 |
| 10 | Al Gharafa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6:11 | 4 |
| 11 | Qatar SC | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4:12 | 2 |
| 12 | Al Sailiya | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5:13 | 0 |
