Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Al-Gharafa vs Lusail

Qatar Qatar

QSL Cup Thani bin Jassim Stadium, Doha
Our Tip

Match Events

25' Event
Al Saleh S.
42' Event
Roustaei A.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this QSL Cup tie, finishing 1-1. Extra time or penalties follow.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Al-Gharafa
11%
Draws
9%
Lusail
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Al-Gharafa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Lusail average 1.43 goals a game right now, well clear of Al-Gharafa's 1.25.
  • 80% — that's where the model lands on Al-Gharafa taking it.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Lusail, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 39.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Al-Gharafa Clean Sheet 20%
Lusail Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al-Gharafa Lusail
Matches Played 33 29
Wins 11 11
Draws 5 6
Losses 17 12
Goals Scored 1.25 1.43
Goals Conceded 2.25 1.71
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.43
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 1.71

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 28, 2025 QSL Cup
Al-Gharafa vs Lusail
1:1
Sep 4, 2023 QFA Cup
Al-Gharafa vs Lusail
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al-Gharafa Compare

Top Goalscorer Al Saleh S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Lusail Compare

Top Goalscorer Roustaei A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.79

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al-Gharafa 76 / 100
Lusail 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al-Gharafa Lusail

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GHA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al-Gharafa scored in 70% of their last 33 games.

Lusail's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Al-Gharafa stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al-Gharafa VS Lusail
1.25 Goals Scored 1.43
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.71
88% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 71%
50% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

Al-Gharafa

(Home)
27 Jul
Al Riyadh
2 : 2
Al-Gharafa
19 Jul
Samorin
2 : 1
Al-Gharafa
09 May
Al-Gharafa
4 : 1
Al-Sadd
05 May
Al Wakra
0 : 1
Al-Gharafa
01 May
Al-Gharafa
2 : 1
Umm-Salal
Page 1 of 7

Lusail

(Away)
24 Jul
Den Bosch
2 : 1
Lusail
18 Jul
Dordrecht
5 : 0
Lusail
30 Apr
Lusail
1 : 2
Al Bidda
25 Apr
Al Markhiya
0 : 2
Lusail
12 Apr
Lusail
3 : 0
Al Mesaimeer
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al Rayyan1081132:1725
2Umm-Salal1062226:1720
3Muaither SC1062221:1320
4Al Arabi (Qatar)1061327:1619
5Al-Waab1053216:1118
6Al Markhiya1053213:1218
7Al Sailiya1060416:1718
8Al-Shahaniya1052313:1117
9Shamal1043319:1115
10Al Bidda1043315:1415
11Al Khor1041518:1713
12Al Mesaimeer1034318:1713
13Qatar SC1041523:2313
14Al-Kharitiyath1041519:2013
15Al Ahli1023513:219
16Al-Duhail102354:179
17Lusail1014515:267
18Al Wakra1013617:226
19Al-Gharafa1012712:225
20Al-Sadd1012718:315
Promotion - QSL Cup (Play Offs)
Promotion - QSL Cup (Play Offs)