Sport Picks
Match Events
8'
8'
Baidoo M.
18'
18'
Al Ganehi A.
Assist: Brahimi Y.
32'
32'
Sassi F.
Assist: Muntari M.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 2-1, with Al-Gharafa advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
90%
6%
4%
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Al-Gharafa
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
95%
/ Very High Confidence
- Al-Gharafa have managed 1.5 goals a game lately — Umm-Salal are scoring more at 1.88.
- Al-Gharafa are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
- Historical meetings favor Al-Gharafa, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and Al-Gharafa have taken 5 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Al-Gharafa Clean Sheet 20%
Umm-Salal Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Al-Gharafa | Umm-Salal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 30 |
| Wins | 11 | 11 |
| Draws | 4 | 4 |
| Losses | 16 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 1.88 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.13 | 2.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 1.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 2.13 | 2.13 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 1, 2026 Emir Cup
Al-Gharafa vs Umm-Salal
2:1
Jan 6, 2026 QSL
Umm-Salal vs Al-Gharafa
2:3
Aug 15, 2025 QSL
Al-Gharafa vs Umm-Salal
4:2
May 19, 2025 Emir Cup
Al-Gharafa vs Umm-Salal
4:2
Mar 7, 2025 QSL
Umm-Salal vs Al-Gharafa
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Al-Gharafa Compare
Top Goalscorer Al Ganehi A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Sassi F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
Umm-Salal Compare
Top Goalscorer Baidoo M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Al-Gharafa 85 / 100
Umm-Salal 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Al-Gharafa Umm-Salal
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick GHA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Umm-Salal's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.
Games between these two average 4.20 goals.
Umm-Salal's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.
Al-Gharafa scored in 71% of their last 31 games.
Scoring Trends
Al-Gharafa VS Umm-Salal
1.5 Goals Scored 1.88
2.13 Goals Conceded 2.13
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Al-Gharafa
(Home) 27 Jul
Al Riyadh
2 : 2 Al-Gharafa
19 Jul
Samorin
2 : 1 Al-Gharafa
09 May
Al-Gharafa
4 : 1 Al-Sadd
05 May
Al Wakra
0 : 1 Al-Gharafa
01 May
Al-Gharafa
2 : 1 Umm-Salal
Page 1 of 7
09 May
Al-Gharafa
4 : 1 Al-Sadd
01 May
Al-Gharafa
2 : 1 Umm-Salal
27 Apr
Al-Gharafa
1 : 1 Al-Shahaniya
18 Mar
Al-Gharafa
1 : 4 Al Ahli
26 Feb
Al-Gharafa
3 : 2 Al Rayyan
Page 1 of 3
Umm-Salal
(Away) 01 May
Al-Gharafa
2 : 1 Umm-Salal
27 Apr
Umm-Salal
1 : 3 Al Ahli
08 Apr
Al Rayyan
3 : 0 Umm-Salal
04 Apr
Shamal
3 : 2 Umm-Salal
28 Mar
Al Rayyan
4 : 3 Umm-Salal
Page 1 of 6
01 May
Al-Gharafa
2 : 1 Umm-Salal
08 Apr
Al Rayyan
3 : 0 Umm-Salal
04 Apr
Shamal
3 : 2 Umm-Salal
28 Mar
Al Rayyan
4 : 3 Umm-Salal
13 Mar
Al-Sadd
2 : 5 Umm-Salal
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Shamal-
TBD-
Qatar SC-
TBD-
Al-Sadd-
TBD-
Al Markhiya2
Al Mesaimeer1
Al-Duhail-
TBD-
Al-Waab2
Lusail0
Al-Shahaniya-
TBD-
TBD-
Al Arabi (Qatar)-
Al-Gharafa-
TBD-
Al-Kharitiyath2
Al Bidda1
Al Ahli-
TBD-
TBD-
Umm-Salal-
Al Rayyan-
TBD-
TBD-
Al Khor-
Al Wakra-
TBD-
Al Sailiya2
Muaither SC1
1/8-finals
Shamal2
Qatar SC1
Al-Sadd2
Al Markhiya1
Al-Duhail2
Al-Waab0
Al-Shahaniya0
Al Arabi (Qatar)2
Al-Gharafa2
Al-Kharitiyath0
Al Ahli2
Umm-Salal4
Al Rayyan2
Al Khor0
Al Wakra2
Al Sailiya0
Quarter-finals
Shamal4
Al-Sadd6
Al-Duhail4
Al Arabi (Qatar)0
Al-Gharafa2
Umm-Salal1
Al Rayyan0
Al Wakra3
Semi-finals
Al-Sadd4
Al-Duhail1
Al-Gharafa1
Al Wakra0
Final
Al-Sadd1
Al-Gharafa4
