Sport Picks
Match Events
8'
8'
Baidoo M.
18'
18'
Al Ganehi A.
Assist: Brahimi Y.
32'
32'
Sassi F.
Assist: Muntari M.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 2-1. The second leg ended 2-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
16%
20%
64%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Umm-Salal
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
16%
/ Low Confidence
- Umm-Salal haven't matched Al-Gharafa's recent run of results.
- Al-Gharafa are the model's pick here, at 50%.
- Al-Gharafa have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Al-Gharafa, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and Al-Gharafa have taken 5 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Al-Gharafa Clean Sheet 20%
Umm-Salal Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Al-Gharafa | Umm-Salal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 10 |
| Draws | 4 | 4 |
| Losses | 16 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 1.35 | 1.79 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.94 | 2.52 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 1, 2026 Emir Cup
Al-Gharafa vs Umm-Salal
2:1
Jan 6, 2026 QSL
Umm-Salal vs Al-Gharafa
2:3
Aug 15, 2025 QSL
Al-Gharafa vs Umm-Salal
4:2
May 19, 2025 Emir Cup
Al-Gharafa vs Umm-Salal
4:2
Mar 7, 2025 QSL
Umm-Salal vs Al-Gharafa
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Al-Gharafa Compare
Top Goalscorer Al Ganehi A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Sassi F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6
Umm-Salal Compare
Top Goalscorer Baidoo M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Al-Gharafa 49 / 100
Umm-Salal 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Al-Gharafa Umm-Salal
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Al-Gharafa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Umm-Salal's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 29 matches.
Games between these two average 4.20 goals.
Al-Gharafa's goal record stands at 74% scoring rate across 31 recent games.
Umm-Salal lost 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Al-Gharafa VS Umm-Salal
2 Goals Scored 0.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Al-Gharafa
(Home) 15 Sept
Al Hilal
2 : 1 Al-Gharafa
11 Sept
Al-Gharafa
0 : 0 Lusail
05 Sept
Al-Sadd
4 : 1 Al-Gharafa
01 Sept
Al-Sadd
2 : 1 Al-Gharafa
27 Aug
Al-Gharafa
1 : 3 Shamal
Page 1 of 7
11 Sept
Al-Gharafa
0 : 0 Lusail
27 Aug
Al-Gharafa
1 : 3 Shamal
21 Aug
Al-Gharafa
2 : 1 Al-Shahaniya
09 May
Al-Gharafa
4 : 1 Al-Sadd
01 May
Al-Gharafa
2 : 1 Umm-Salal
Page 1 of 3
Umm-Salal
(Away) 07 Sept
Umm-Salal
1 : 5 Al Khor
30 Aug
Al Mesaimeer
1 : 2 Umm-Salal
25 Aug
Umm-Salal
1 : 1 Qatar U23
08 Aug
Sporting Lokeren
5 : 0 Umm-Salal
01 May
Al-Gharafa
2 : 1 Umm-Salal
Page 1 of 6
30 Aug
Al Mesaimeer
1 : 2 Umm-Salal
08 Aug
Sporting Lokeren
5 : 0 Umm-Salal
01 May
Al-Gharafa
2 : 1 Umm-Salal
08 Apr
Al Rayyan
3 : 0 Umm-Salal
04 Apr
Shamal
3 : 2 Umm-Salal
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Shamal -
TBD -
Qatar SC -
TBD -
Al-Sadd -
TBD -
Al Markhiya 2
Al Mesaimeer 1
Al-Duhail -
TBD -
Al-Waab 2
Lusail 0
Al-Shahaniya -
TBD -
TBD -
Al Arabi (Qatar) -
Al-Gharafa -
TBD -
Al-Kharitiyath 2
Al Bidda 1
Al Ahli -
TBD -
TBD -
Umm-Salal -
Al Rayyan -
TBD -
TBD -
Al Khor -
Al Wakra -
TBD -
Al Sailiya 2
Muaither SC 1
1/8-finals
Shamal 2
Qatar SC 1
Al-Sadd 2
Al Markhiya 1
Al-Duhail 2
Al-Waab 0
Al-Shahaniya 0
Al Arabi (Qatar) 2
Al-Gharafa 2
Al-Kharitiyath 0
Al Ahli 2
Umm-Salal 4
Al Rayyan 2
Al Khor 0
Al Wakra 2
Al Sailiya 0
Quarter-finals
Shamal 4
Al-Sadd 6
Al-Duhail 4
Al Arabi (Qatar) 0
Al-Gharafa 2
Umm-Salal 1
Al Rayyan 0
Al Wakra 3
Semi-finals
Al-Sadd 4
Al-Duhail 1
Al-Gharafa 1
Al Wakra 0
Final
Al-Sadd 1
Al-Gharafa 4
