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Al Ghazieh vs Al Ahli Nabatiya

Lebanon Lebanon

Premier League 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Nawatta C.
64' Event
Muhtadi M. R.
69' Event
Ibrahim A.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2023/2024 game between Al Ghazieh and Al Ahli Nabatiya finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Ghazieh.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Al Ghazieh
22%
Draws
18%
Al Ahli Nabatiya
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Al Ghazieh

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Al Ghazieh come out ahead of Al Ahli Nabatiya on wins alone.
  • Model gives Al Ghazieh a 60% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Al Ghazieh have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.4%
Al Ghazieh Clean Sheet 68%
Al Ahli Nabatiya Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Ghazieh Al Ahli Nabatiya
Matches Played 36 30
Wins 7 6
Draws 11 11
Losses 18 13
Goals Scored 0.75 0
Goals Conceded 2 0

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2024 Premier League
Al Ahli Nabatiya vs Al Ghazieh
0:3
Apr 7, 2024 Premier League
Al Ahli Nabatiya vs Al Ghazieh
0:2
Feb 24, 2024 Premier League
Al Ghazieh vs Al Ahli Nabatiya
2:1
Oct 1, 2023 Premier League
Al Ghazieh vs Al Ahli Nabatiya
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Ghazieh Compare

Top Goalscorer Nawatta C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ibrahim A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Al Ahli Nabatiya Compare

Top Goalscorer Muhtadi M. R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Ghazieh 68 / 100
Al Ahli Nabatiya 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Ghazieh Al Ahli Nabatiya

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GHA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Ahli Nabatiya's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Al Ahli Nabatiya's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Attacking prowess: Al Ghazieh scored in 56% of their last 36 outings.

Scoring Trends

Al Ghazieh VS -
0.75 Goals Scored 0
2 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%